China will cut its cotton imports by 1 million bales to 16 million bales of cotton in 2012/13 from the previous year, the US Agriculture Department said on Friday, as world cotton consumption rises for the first time in three years.
At its annual Outlook Forum, USDA said China's domestic support price, which is higher than projected world prices, "is likely to constrain consumption growth and support demand for imported raw cotton and yarn, as well as synthetic fibers."
USDA estimated China would grow 30.5 million bales of cotton in 2012, import 16 million bales, use 45 million bales and have ending stocks of 19.5 million bales. By comparison, the 2011/12 outlook is a crop of 33.5 million bales, imports of 17 million, use of 44 million bales and end stocks of 18.05 million bales.
"Declining world cotton prices will enable cotton to regain competitive advantage with respect to other fibers in 2012/13," said USDA. "A significant portion of the decline in cotton consumption in recent years has been a shift to competing fibers, mainly polyester." Cotton use world-wide was forecast for 114.5 million bales, up 4 percent from this year and the first increase in three years.
The world crop was estimated at 118.5 million bales, down 4 percent. End stocks would climb to 64.8 million bales in 2012/13, up 7 percent, said USDA. Smaller plantings are anticipated in China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, central Asia and Australia, which account for 70 percent of global output.
India was forecast to grow 26.5 million bales in 2012/13, down 2 percent from the previous year, Pakistan 10 million bales, down 4 percent, Brazil 8.5 million bales, down 6 percent and Australia 4.7 million bales, down 6 percent.
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