The last thing that Angela Merkel would have wanted as she battles to bring Europe's debt crisis under control is to be facing a test of her domestic political strength. But starting this Sunday, the German chancellor finds herself facing three unplanned state elections that could help to reshape the country's political landscape.
Indeed, the elections in the states of Saarland, Schleswig Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) over the coming weeks could set the stage for the 2013 general election. This is particularly the case in NRW, with an opinion poll published Wednesday showing the state's popular Social Democrat (SPD) Premier Hannelore Kraft and her Green Party coalition partner likely to strengthen their hold on parliament at the snap election set for May 13.
The Berlin-based Forsa opinion poll group said Kraft's SPD has gained 4.5 per cent since the last election in the state two years ago to reach 39 per cent. Meanwhile, support for Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats dropped 1.6 per cent to 33 per cent. "Kraft is like the state's mother; she reaches out to the people," political party researcher Juergen Falter told the daily Ruhr Nachrichten. "The SPD and the Greens are also not doing badly at the federal level." With a population of 18 million - about 25 per cent of the total German population - NRW elections are often seen as a bellweather for national parliamentary ballots.
The risk for Merkel is that a boost to the SPD in Germany's biggest state could represent not just a set back for her party in NRW but also undercut her political prestige amid speculation about the configuration of the country's next national government.After all, a SPD-Green government in NRW acted as a model for the creation of a national SPD-Green coalition under Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in October 1998.
Seven years later, a big swing against the SPD in a NRW election prompted Schroeder to call for an early national election - which Merkel eventually won. Then two years ago, Merkel lost her majority in the Bundesrat upper house of parliament after CDU's defeat in the last NRW election. The CDU's efforts in mounting an effective challenge to the SPD's hold on NRW have also been also hampered by the imbroglio surrounding the party's standard-bearer in the election, Merkel's ambitious environment minister, Norbert Roettgen.
The election campaign in the state is now entering its second week with the headlines still dominated by a barrage of criticism of Roettgen's reluctance to give up his cabinet post in Berlin and to make a bigger commitment to NRW. But before voters in NRW go the polls, electors in Saarland and Schleswig Holstein have to pass judgement.
Opinion polls show the CDU and the SPD locked in a neck-and-neck race to emerge as the major party in both Saarland and Schleswig Holstein elections. The result could be the two parties might end up forging a grand coalition in the states, consequently fuelling speculation that Merkel might also be forced to form a government with the SPD after next year's national poll. This is especially the case as the biggest loser of three elections could be Merkel's coalition partner, the Free Democrats (FDP).
Opinion polls shows the pro-business FDP is in danger of being wiped out of parliament in each of the states in the wake of damaging leadership debates and splits over the party's approach to dealing with the debt crisis. The collapse of the FDP could leave Merkel without an obvious coalition partner in the build-up to next year's national election.
Wednesday's poll for NRW showed the FDP as languishing below the 5 per cent needed for political parties to enter parliament. The failure of the FDP to re-enter the state parliaments could also trigger a fresh round of tension and instability in Merkel's government as the FDP battles to promote itself to head off extinction or plunges into a new leadership struggle.
At the same time, the elections could mark the further rise in the political fortunes of the Pirate Party, which campaigns for an unfettered internet. The group is likely to garner enough votes to enter each of the state parliaments, consequently representing another step on the road to winning seats in the national parliament.
Comments
Comments are closed.