Pyongyang's gesture of strength and defiance has ended in fiasco. The failure to launch an observation satellite represents a serious setback to the isolated communist state's ambitions to push its goal this year of being on the threshold of becoming a "prosperous and strong country."
The launch of the satellite into orbit had been billed as the highpoint of the current celebrations to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of "Eternal President" Kim Il Sung, the country's founding father who enjoys near-divine status.
The controversial launch has prompted renewed fears of an escalation in regional tensions. South Korea and the United States called on the international community to send a strong signal to Pyongyang, and have expressed concern at North Korea's attempts to develop a missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the US mainland.
North Korea denied that the launch had any military purpose, but even experts in China, the country's main ally, believe the launch was a covert test for a ballistic missile armed with a nuclear warhead. The risk that the country may now undertake another nuclear test has risen. Newly installed leader Kim Jong Un could attempt to use a test to draw attention away from the failed launch, in the view of Cheng Xiaohe, Professor of International Relations at the People's University in Beijing.
"The chance of success of a nuclear test is higher, because it would be the third test," Cheng told dpa. This kind of test, which would be conducted underground, is in any case more difficult for outsiders to evaluate.
The missile launch was "the wrong decision at the wrong time," the professor said. It had harmed the rapprochement with the US which had been built up with difficulty. And a restart of the Six Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear programme, stalled for the past three years, was now more unlikely than ever.
"Even worse, it drives an arms race in north-east Asia," Cheng said. "It hands the US and Japan an excuse to construct a missile defence system." It remains unclear how the international community will react. "The launch is a clear violation of a UN resolution," according to Peter Beck of the Asia Foundation in Seoul. "But there are only a few points of leverage," he said with respect to demands for a clear response.
North Korea is already subject to strict sanctions, although China and South Korea could strike a blow at the regime of Kim Jong Un by halting trade and food deliveries. But China is worried about exacerbating conditions for the population which is already short of food.
Following the transfer of power from "Supreme Leader" Kim Jong Il, who died in December, to his son, the launch had been intended as a signal primarily to ordinary North Koreans. "The failure will put some pressure on Kim Jong Un," says Beck, although this will be limited.
The regime has been at pains to cement his accession to power, with propaganda showing him as a competent military strategist. "Kim Jong Un will have to find a scapegoat, although everyone knows that Kim Jong Un is responsible," Cheng says. "This is a serious blow to him."
As North Korea does not intend to give up its nuclear programme, calls in China for a change in policy towards its secretive neighbour are becoming louder. It is high time to review current attitudes, in Cheng's view. "The international community, including China, should undertake measures to restrain North Korea," the professor says.
Zhang Liangui, a professor at the University of the Communist Party in Beijing, has long lost patience with Pyongyang. "They can't simply do as they please, ignore international concerns and refuse to take any advice," he says. In even stronger language, Zhang says it is "unacceptable" to have a country as immune to outside opinion in the international community. But China's Foreign Ministry has once again called for calm and warned against any escalation.
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