Finance, PBS at loggerheads over estimate for GDP growth

Ministry of Finance and Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) are at loggerheads over the projected GDP growth rate for the current fiscal year after National Accounts Committee (NAC) estimated growth rate at 3.2 percent while the Finance Minister said that the rate would be 4 percent last week in Washington while attending the IMF/World Bank spring meeting, it was learnt.
An official said that the PBS has been asked to place before the Governing Council of Bureau, an advisory body headed by the Finance Minister, provisional estimates of eight months for their review soon after the 3.2 percent growth estimates were announced by the Secretary PBS, Sohail Ahmed at the conclusion of NAC meeting. Director General PBS, Arif Mehmood Cheema was quoted as saying that he would be defending methodology and data before the Governing Council. Another official on condition of anonymity said that the Secretary PBS, Sohail Ahmed, might face difficulties on the issue.
Sohail Ahmed told media at a hurriedly convened briefing after the NAC meeting that "we will place our provisional estimates of first eight months before the Governing Council to review the figures." He dispelled the impression of any pressure but an official on condition of anonymity revealed that the Governing Council was not scheduled previously and directives to this effect were received after announcement of growth estimates by the NAC for the next fiscal year.
Secretary PBS said that the growth would have been 3.8 percent if calculated on the basis of 2.4 percent GDP growth for last year but last year's target was revised upward from 2.4 percent to 3 percent due to higher production of wheat crop. The increase in growth for the last fiscal year led to a broadening of GDP base for the last year and consequently the growth for the current fiscal year was narrowed to 3.2 percent.
Director General PBS said that he would defend provisional estimates prepared by using a new base year before the Governing Council because change in base year did not affect the growth rate. The change of base year from 1999-2000 to 2005-06 would enable the authorities to comply with the commitment with International Monetary Fund (IMF) to prepare national accounts of the economy on quarterly basis to readjust targets in light of the data compiled after effective co-ordination among various departments of the government at federal and provincial level.