Argentina's 2012 soyabean crop could fall as low as 39-40 million tonnes from 49.2 million tonnes in 2011 as drought and flooding continue to force farmers to abandon soya crops, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. "The Argentine soyabean crop remains in trouble as acreage abandonment is exceeding expectations as a result of severe drought in the northern states as well as the latest flooding in parts of the Buenos Aires province," Oil World said.
"It is thus possible that the soyabean crop plunges to only 39-40 million tonnes compared with our current estimate of 40.5 million tonnes and last year's 49.2 million tonnes." Argentina is the world's third-largest soyabean producer after the United States and Brazil. Estimates of South American soyabean production continue to shrink as farmers harvest the remainder of the southern hemisphere crop, a factor driving down forecasts for US and global inventories and supporting prices.
Drought and then flooding in Argentine crop areas prompted the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange on May 24 to cut its estimate for the country's 2011/12 soyabean crop to 39.9 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 41 million tonnes. Brazil is also suffering a poor soyabean crop. "This year's soyabean crop failure in South America is additionally weighing on this season's tight soyaoil supplies," Oil World said. Global 2011/12 season soyaoil output is likely to rise only 0.3 million tonnes on the year to 41.7 million tonnes following a 2.5 million tonne rise in 2010/11, it forecast.
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