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Most Latin American currencies gained on Friday on bets that major central banks could inject another dose of liquidity into global markets, but analysts were sceptical the gains would last. Risk assets around the world rallied on hopes of collective action from global central banks if Sunday's election in Greece triggers market turmoil.
But analysts said much of those gains could quickly fade since growing fears about slowing global growth could outweigh easy money from central banks. "When the dust clears, the US is slowing, China is slowing, the euro zone is blowing up, that is nothing to rally off, you are just getting better levels to sell at," said Win Thin, an emerging market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. Mexico's peso, the most liquid currency in the region, slipped 0.36 percent to 13.92 per dollar even as Brazil's real and Chile's peso gained ground. Fears that a new Greek government could reject the country's international bailout hammered world financial markets in May.
Those concerns diminished somewhat after Reuters reported on Thursday that G20 central banks stand ready to defend world markets if a win by anti-austerity politicians in Greece spurs a global sell-off in riskier assets. Analysts note liquidity injections have had diminishing returns. Europe's promise last weekend to back Spain with 100 billion euros to help its banks juiced markets during Asian trading hours on Monday but failed to lift Latin America later.
Recent data suggest that growth in the United States, Mexico's top trading partner, is on shaky ground while slowing growth in China bodes poorly for Brazil, which sends most of its exports to the world's second-biggest economy. Still, Mexican bonds keep drawing in funds. While the peso slumped to a three-year low in late May, yields on Mexican bonds have headed back to record lows.
Foreign investors have piled up a record 1.209 trillion Mexican pesos ($86.89 billion) of local currency bonds, according to the latest central bank data from June 6, but analysts said a weaker peso could push investors to sell. The Brazilian real rose 0.7 percent to 2.0436 per dollar at the local market close, backed by expectations Brazil's government could further unwind some of the measures it undertook last year to curb excess dollar inflows. The currency slipped back past 2.05 after the close. A jump in copper prices boosted the Chilean peso, which bid 0.26 percent stronger to 499.80 per dollar.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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