Giving a safe passage to goods needed for Nato forces in Afghanistan and supporting their supply line to continue working smoothly, is being debated in the country by all stakeholders. The national assembly was asked by the government to provide a guideline on which it will draw the structure to negotiate and frame its future policies.
The Defense Committee of Cabinet has debated the issue and determined the course. In light of the principle that it will be in the interest of Pakistan to facilitate occupation forces, which are likely to be leaving Afghanistan and also to consolidate relations with the United States of America and its allies, the negotiations are in final stage.
It cannot be denied that an amicable settlement is composed of multifarious problems. Taking into account the food supplies, medical aid and other necessary materials, even the ammunition for the forces will be required to get through. The possibility of any seepage and pilferage of goods and equipment and its accessibility to miscreants is also feared. As of Salala incidence remaining without apology and never ending drone attacks, an abusive use of technology for killing instead of surveillance, it is getting difficult for the government to keep people in a pensive mood.
For more than 30 years, Pakistan is facing a war-like situation and has been declared by the global community as an unsafe and terrorism-torn area. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan produced devastating effects on Afghanistan and Pakistan could not distance itself from the heatwaves coming from across the border. The al Qaeda emergence and episode attributed to it subsequently pushed the country and its gallant army to side with the US in self-defence. A situation where "with or against", was a Hobson's choice.
The depletion of resources, loss of human life, suicide blasts, decay of social fabric, values and offer of small compensation in return was accepted by people at the helm of affairs made it an unfair deal. Escalating cost, forty thousand casualties and prolonging uncertainties are making stakes even higher. The by-products are irreparable damage to infrastructure, values attached to peaceful living which cannot be estimated and persistently adding distress to normal living.
Notwithstanding the backing of United Nations, the Nato forces with a combination of developed nations pursuing the idea of making world safe for human living cannot be oblivious of their responsibility to treat every soul and human being without contempt. King Fredrick the Great of Germany has said that "you can have what ever you like, you are never wrong unless you are obliged to give it back". The pre-emptive moves, shield of collateral damages and being oblivious to the problems of LDCs (less developed countries) are the complexities which require the UN forum to re-assess the global peace initiatives.
The safe passage and assigning peace keeping responsibility to Pakistan is not achievable in the presence of continuous drone attacks in the northern terrain and incidents such as Salala without remorse. But a premium to see Afghanistan, a brotherly country free and to avoid further agony to our own people, it is time to take stock of things before it goes out of hand.
Pakistan has to keep relations with Nato and other countries, if it is destined to make progress. In "negotiations", assessing one's own strengths and weaknesses and that of the counterpart is important. The concept is divided in three forms: in the first one, there remains equally balanced parties and the treatment is to be accorded at par for continued business. Such deals are a common form of "negotiation". The second situation relates to business when carried by a stronger element with a weaker one and done by "intimidation". In the last position, when transactions are undertaken by a smaller component with a stronger one, the normal way is by "persuasion".
We are falling in the third category while dealing with the US and its allies and not allowed to sit at the other side of the fence. We have a weaker economy, without options of going to international institutions for support as managed by Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Investment is shying away due to uncertainties and a volcanic situation, ready to erupt any time. We are without friends to bail us out and are dependent in matters relating to technology, trade and social support in any crisis, floods and earthquakes on communities who may be allies but not friends. It is a matter of trust and mistrust, which makes the job of negotiations harder.
It must be recognised that loss to economy is the mother of all ills. If we accept in principle to provide passage, the cash settlements in advance for support to logistics, trucking, rail links, port utilisation, any air space usage and solution to our energy and power crisis are to be recognised. Billing later for services and delays in settlement cannot be afforded by liquidity starved economies as we experienced in withholding of coalition funds. The future business support with MFN (most-favoured nation) status by the US, allowing FTAs (free trade agreements) and GSP (generalised system preference) status with trade concession by other Eurozone countries are to be strongly emphasised to help us to stand in competition. Concessions to allowing entry of our goods without quota controls and anti-dumping duty is our need. Considering Pakistan for investment in various lucrative industries without constraints of country rating will be a promotion of their trust in us. Initially, it can be a workable plan for duration of five years with a provision for annual review of targets and hiccups. Pakistan has to persuade for considerations for a bailout as HIDCs (highly indebted countries) have been helped in the Eurozone to recover after financial meltdown. Pakistan is still on the borderline of developing and less developed countries. It needs measures by Nato countries to facilitate businesses without making them subject to any legal litmus tests for an alignment to internal policies.
Compared to cost of the entire operations in Afghanistan, the compensation provided was insignificant. The support accorded to allies in the fight against terrorism has taken a heavy toll on us and should not escape the eyes of countries benefited by our assistance. Back to normalcy of peacetime. Reviving industries, creating employment and addressing the issues of trade imbalance with space for paying off some loans which have increased being part of collateral damages, is to be understood. The social and moral decadence and mushrooming of Jihadi groups is a by-product and a result of a situation created way back in the late 1970s. The resilience by Pakistan army and sufferings of the people are not ordinary affairs and no wonder it changed the psyche of society. The onslaught of great power game is making us a victim of circumstances and creating impediments to our progress which we would have achieved with the passage of time. The impression of being an scapegoat has to be dispensed with. Our allies are required to be successfully persuaded that the cost and privileges requested are not for profit-making but to revamp our industry for generating employment, supporting exports, curbing foreign exchange imbalance and creating peaceful atmosphere. It will develop positive thinking amongst our youth and secure their future.
The issue of drones has its own intricacies. They are innovations of modern warfare, unarmed aircraft following artificial intelligence. Its usage in Iraq, Yemen, Libya and Pakistan has put it in the category of a growing future war industry based on technology. It should be dealt with in accordance with UN laws. The incidence of Salala and matter of an apology from allies will find an apt meaning in its letter and in spirit.
Political parties and clergy must realise that it is not the time for extracting political mileage. The negotiations involve most ticklish issues and their rhetoric will have no meaning without peace and economic progress. It is time to push for people-oriented programmes, to involve youth and labour in productive activities. Strikes with regular holidays result in non-productive ninety days in a year. Reaching to a consensus is necessary and a responsibility for all. Even one-point agenda, where, opposition and ruling party with other stakeholders are to agree that keeping peace is paramount.
If we follow the Chinese and Japanese model, the economic progress, preserving value and culture will develop a soft-image and help the nation create living environments. Pakistan is fortunate that its sixty-five percent of population is young. But creating a synergy is responsibility of all and sundries. People-oriented programmes can be diverted towards their education and skills development. Raw youth have to be developed into human capital and raw material is to be converted into value-added products.
The compensation related to land routes should be utilised for making highways network. A new Karachi-Peshawar expressway can be considered and existing one may be left for continued Nato traffic. Likewise, railway tracks can also be improved and extended. The infrastructure for traffic is needed to be built up for future requirements. In this context, it is important to apply a direct cost estimate to utilisation of port and air space, railway network, highways, containers, trucks, fuel and energy and proportionate management fee will not be out of place. An income-and-expenses portfolio is to be worked out in detail as budget of the participating organisations providing support services. Any amount being part of circular debt falling in the orbit of supply line activities can be taken care of from the funds so received.
Our future economy or security is linked with discipline in dealing with multiple countries, cash liquidity generated through services, strengthening infrastructure, power generation, investment in industry and developing a labour force to support production for a viable market. The negotiating team and aspirants of future policymakers are expected to play a nation-building role. It is hoped that sanity will prevail.
(The writer is a former banker)
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