Last-minute snags have cast doubt over a crisis meeting on Syria to take place in Geneva on Saturday, based on a plan proposed by international envoy Kofi Annan to bring about political change in the troubled country. Russia, a key ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, had made clear that it thinks Annan's plan goes too far and demanded changes, diplomats said.
The plan calls for a transition government including current leaders and opposition members, but excluding those who pose a risk to reconciliation - a formulation that could be interpreted as a call on al-Assad to step down. A Western diplomat in Beirut, whose country is participating in the Geneva talks, said US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton would hold a "crucial meeting" with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saint Petersburg later Friday to assess prospects for Annan's new proposal.
In Geneva, Annan is to propose a Syrian-led transition and "rapid steps" leading to a political settlement in the country torn apart by 16 months of war, according to the draft document obtained by dpa. According to the Beirut-based diplomat, Clinton and her British and French counterparts told Annan on Thursday that it was "useless and a waste of time" to hold talks in Geneva without guarantees that the transitional plan can be implemented in Syria.
Annan's proposal will be discussed in Geneva by the foreign ministers of the so-called Action Group. It consists of the five United Nations Security Council permanent members - the US, Russia, China, France and Britain - as well as Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, plus EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.
The proposal is called Guidelines and Principles for a Syrian-led Transition. It says the proposed interim government could include al-Assad officials and the opposition, "but would exclude from government those who would undermine the credibility of the transition and ... reconciliation."
While this phrase goes too far for Russia, the Syrian opposition has warned it would not accept a political transition plan if it allowed al-Assad to hold onto power. "How can we accept a plan that will allow this butcher to stay in power?" Naji Tayyra, a member of the key opposition Syrian National Council, told dpa.
Russia has already made clear that it will object to any proposal that could exclude individuals from the proposed transitional unity government. "Thus, Russia implies it wants no limits on the participation of al-Assad's allies in the transitional government," the Beirut-based diplomat surmised, asking not to be named. "By taking this stand, Russians have plunged Annan's new plan into a minefield," said Asaad Bahasra, a Lebanese analyst. "Russians are mainly playing for time. They want a solution that does not call for al-Assad to step down and this is something the opposition has vehemently rejected on several occasions," he added.
The US hopes the Geneva meeting will ratchet up pressure on al-Assad's regime by projecting a united international front that includes Russia. Annan's plan would "draw support (away) from him (al-Assad) and he will understand that he can't hide behind these allies any more," US State department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said Thursday, in a clear reference to China and Russia.
Even if Annan's transition plan clears diplomatic hurdles and gains support of the regime and opposition rebels alike, it still has to sway Saudi Arabia and Qatar who seek al-Assad's immediate ouster in order to stem Iran's influence in the region, observers say. "Unfortunately, this has become a regional conflict and the new Annan plan is not a regional solution," said Oraib Rantawi of the Al Quds Centre for Political Studies, based in Amman.
"Syria has become the new battleground between Saudi Arabia and Iran (a key regional ally of al-Assad), and neither has interest in a peaceful transition in power as laid out in the plan," Rantawi said. "Unless these regional powers are brought to the table and (can) be committed to this plan, peace cannot hold in Syria for a day," he added.
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