Ukraine lowers grains outlook on fall in maize

Ukraine's state weather forecasting centre lowered its outlook for the 2012 grain harvest to 42 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 44 million on Thursday due to a smaller than expected maize crop. Hot and dry weather in southern and eastern regions has reduced the yield of maize, Tetyana Adamenko, head of the agriculture department for the centre, told Reuters.
The maize harvest is seen at 20 million-21 million tonnes versus a previous outlook of 22 million tonnes while the government has forecast a crop of at least 25 million tonnes this year. "Plants have begun to die from the heat," Adamenko said. "At the present time, we can see a maize harvest of 20-21 million tonnes while the final forecast will be made on July 20," she said.
Adamenko said rains in eastern and southern Ukraine earlier this week had not changed the state of crops. Farm Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk said this week Ukraine, hit by poor weather during the sowing and wintering of major crops, expects to harvest between 20 and 21 million tonnes of early grains - mostly wheat and barley - in 2012 against 34 million tonnes in 2011.
Ukraine's government forecasts a harvest of 44 million-47 million tonnes of grain this year against a record 56.7 million tonnes in 2011. Weather forecasters see the crop at no more than 44 million tonnes. A senior weather forecaster this week said Ukraine could harvest about 12-14 million tonnes of wheat and 6 million tonnes of barley this year. The harvest of wheat totalled 22.3 million tonnes in 2011 while the output of barley stood at 9 million tonnes.
EXPORTS Ukraine's Farm Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk revised downwards his forecast for the July-June 2012/13 exports to 22-23 million tonnes in 2012/13 against the previous outlook of 22-27 million tonnes due to a smaller-than-expected harvest. In May, Prysyazhnyuk told Reuters Ukraine could harvest up to 50 million tonnes of grain in 2012, but this week he cut the forecast to 47 million tonnes. He gave no details of the fresh forecast. Analysts have said Ukraine is likely to harvest 45.5 million tonnes of grain this year, including 14.2 million tonnes of wheat, 7.3 million tonnes of barley and 21.3 million tonnes of maize.
They also said high ending stocks of about 10 million tonnes would compensate for the decrease in grain crop this year and could allow Ukraine to increase exports to 24 million tonnes in 2012/13 from 20.3 million tonnes in 2011/12. UkrAgroCosnult agriculture consultancy has said Ukraine may export 14.0 million tonnes of maize, 7.0 million tonnes of wheat and 2.9 million tonnes of barley this season.