Middle East - shifting paradigm

Israel is making waves again. Nothing new. The current rapprochement was in the making for a long time. The UAE and Bahrain have established diplomatic relations with Israel. The Arab superpower, Saudi Arabia, is waiting and watching. In corporate parlance this is "Sampling or Test Marketing". If no major turbulence takes place, Saudi Arabia will follow suit. President Donald Trump needs such foreign policy success to lift his dismal domestic ratings. Perhaps it would be worthwhile to revisit some major events in recent history so that the decision makers in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, whether in uniform or mufti, can understand the complex situation.

After WWII ended, the Big Three (Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin) carved up the Middle East like a birthday cake. Palestine was left under the British mandate. But the Levant countries stayed under French dominance. Israel gained independence in 1948. The French influence also extended to Israel. In 1949, a grouping of Arab leaders went to visit President Truman in Washington D.C. They expressed reservations about Israel's expansionist designs. Truman, always outspoken and to the point, said: "Gentlemen, I have thousands of Jewish voters to contend with. There are very few Arab votes".

In the formative years of Israel, the US largely stayed neutral. They were focused on two strategic issues - 1. Dominating the oil output in the Arab lands and 2. Building up the Shah of Iran as the policeman of the Middle East/Indian Ocean. The French influence prevailed in the region. Things took a turn when King Farouk of Egypt was dislodged by the Najeeb/Nasser coup. Actually, King Farouk was a good guy - gambling, wine, women and songs. The coup had the US worried, especially after the Soviet influence started spreading in Egypt, Syria and Iraq. In the 1967 war, Israel decimated the combined Arab armies and emerged unquestionably victorious. Suddenly, the deep establishment of the US took a serious note of Israel's military superiority. There was considerable public acclaim in the US about Israel. About this time, the US made Israel a close proxy state - with all the diplomatic, economic and military benefits. The US strategy was to have two strong supporters in the Middle East: Iran & Israel. In 1956, Iran had already recognized Israel. The then Prime Minister of Iran (after Mosaddegh) received a secret payment of US $ $400,000 for his compliance. Reza Shah Pahlavi was totally brainwashed into believing that they (the Iranians) were an Aryan race - not Muslims. In 1970, civil war broke out in Jordan, between the Palestinians (70% of the population) and the Hashemites. King Hussain of Jordan was kept in power by the combined efforts of the US and Israel. A General from Pakistan who was an Advisor to the Jordanian government was directed to totally crush the Palestinians. He did. Successfully. Over 10,000 dead. Later, the same General assumed leadership of Pakistan and cloaked himself in the Islamic mantle.

The Yom Kippur war in 1973 further established Israel's dominance. During the war, the US established an Air Brigade and armaments were supplied to Israel 24/7. The only outstanding achievement on the Arab side was the heroics of the Pakistan Air Force pilots, on deputation. By now the US and Israel had signed a number of treaties and MoUs. The US was marginally concerned about the Islamic movement in Iran and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's socialist tendencies. But the CIA confidently predicted that there was no existential threat to the Pahlavi Dynasty. One of the MoUs between the US and Israel allowed US citizens/corporations to make charitable contributions to organizations in Israel, claiming tax rebate. If Mr. X donated US$100,000 to an Israeli entity, US$90,000 would be recycled back to Mr. X through unknown channels. But Mr. X could claim tax rebate on the whole US$100,000. Thus, Israel became a money laundromat. This continues till today. Cyprus is the other major laundromat used by Russian oligarchs, etc. After the Shah was deposed in 1979, the US/Western powers lost a major client.

Thereafter followed a series of geopolitical blunders - the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Iraq/Iran war, the two Gulf Wars, Syria, Lebanon, Libya. The main beneficiary was Israel. That brings us to the current developments. Saudi Arabia has amassed advanced weaponry worth US$800 billion over the last 10 years. Their defense forces are not trained to use such sophisticated stuff. In the event of an all-out war, the US personnel will be deployed, or the Israeli defense forces.

China and Pakistan are closely allied (to use a hackneyed phrase "All Weather Friendship"). China and Iran are also creating an alliance. But this trio, powerful as it may be, is meaningless unless Russia shows its cards. Vladimir Putin is a grand master of geo-strategy. He keeps things close to his chest. My read is that Russia will exploit the situation, but not get fully involved. This is because of two historic reasons - 1. The unwritten agreement reached by the Big Three at Potsdam, Yalta and Tehran, 2. The Russian Orthodox church, which has considerable influence in Putin's Russia, will react most unfavorably. Besides Russia and China differ on many issues i.e. Putin supports Trump, Xi supports Biden. The scenario can play out in either way.

I have slightly misled the reader by implying that the US-Israel relationship is a recent phenomenon, circa the 1960s. Actually, Jewish money and the US have been intertwined since the 1880s. This involved the Rothschild, the Morgan family, the Vanderbilt's, Rockefellers, the Mellons and many others. More about this later. Even the East India Company played a minor role in the American war of Independence.

(The writer is the former Executive Director of the Management Association of Pakistan)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020