Kazakhstan central bank expected to keep policy rate unchanged
- Eight of 10 analysts polled this week predicted no change at the Jan. 25 meeting. One forecast a cut to 8.75% and another one an increase to 9.25%.
- Annual inflation accelerated to 7.5% in December, the highest since October 2017, from 7.3% a month earlier.
ALMATY: Kazakhstan's central bank is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 9.00% on Monday as inflation remains elevated, but may gradually switch to a more dovish stance, a Reuters poll showed.
Eight of 10 analysts polled this week predicted no change at the Jan. 25 meeting. One forecast a cut to 8.75% and another one an increase to 9.25%.
The central bank has kept the rate unchanged since a 50 basis points cut in July, when Kazakhstan entered its second national lockdown amid a novel coronavirus flare-up. It lifted the lockdown in mid-August.
Annual inflation accelerated to 7.5% in December, the highest since October 2017, from 7.3% a month earlier.
Analysts at Kazakh brokerage Halyk Finance said this made an immediate rate cut unlikely.
"However, the probability of a cut in the coming months is increasing and we do not rule out the regulator adopting more dovish rhetoric, signalling the central bank's movement towards monetary policy easing," Halyk Finance commented.
Alen Sabitov, senior analyst at Freedom Finance, another Kazakh brokerage, said the strengthening of the tenge currency this month also gave the central bank more room for easing "once inflation stabilises after the 2020 shock".
The tenge lost 9.4% of its value against the dollar last year, but has been rallying alongside the price of oil, Kazakhstan's main export, over the last few months. It has climbed about 3.2% since October.
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