Indian stocks firm, rupee steady ahead of budget to revive economy

Indian shares edged higher and the rupee held steady ahead of the country's budget where large infrastructure spending and tax cuts will likely be unveiled to boost the pandemic-hit economy.

Philippine stocks jumped more than 2% after heavy losses last week, while other Asian equities pushed higher, although worries over vaccine rollouts and economic recovery persisted among investors.

Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has promised a 'budget never seen before', where she is expected to increase spending by more than 15% in 2021-22 with an emphasis on infrastructure and healthcare.

The government will also have to play a balancing act, given the expected massive fiscal deficit in 2020-21 due to COVID-19 stimulus measures and lower revenue, and the continued need for higher spending in the coming year to pull the economy out of a slump.

"Generally budgets create a negative sentiment from the financing numbers. This time around, since 2020 was such a washout year, all the negatives are priced in," said Anindya Banerjee, vice president at Kotak Securities for currency and fixed income.

"All in all, the actual borrowing numbers could actually be less than the street estimates, and the fiscal deficit could be a tad lower than what the consensus is, so there's room for a positive surprise for bonds and a definite positive for the rupee," he added.

The Reserve Bank of India is also set to begin a three-day meeting on Wednesday before announcing its interest rate decision on Feb. 5, where it is largely expected to stand pat on rates.

Indian shares rose 0.3% and the rupee held steady at 72.9 per dollar ahead of the budget presentation due around 0530 GMT.

Elsewhere, most Asian currencies were subdued, taking the lead from the yuan which was off 0.5% after a survey on Sunday showed China's factory activity grew at the slowest pace in five months in January, hit by a wave of domestic coronavirus infections.

"The data is unlikely to bode well for the yuan in the short term, with USDCNY likely to continue to trade with an upwards bias," wrote Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities.

Broader Asian stock markets managed to shed early losses and push higher, while Malaysian markets were shut for a public holiday.