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Markets

Latam FX weighed down by inflation concerns

  • Colombian peso leads losses.
  • Mexican peso buoyed by rate hike hopes.
Published May 19, 2021

Latin American currencies retreated on Wednesday as investors awaited cues from the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting, while declines in oil and metal prices also weighed.

Colombia's peso was among the top losers in Latam, falling 0.6% from a nearly one-month high in tandem with losses in the crude market.

Violent, sometimes fatal anti-government protests in the country have weighed on its outlook, while the scrapping of a proposed tax reform has raised the possibility of a credit downgrade for the country's debt, to junk levels.

Brazil's real fell about 0.4%, while the MSCI's index of Latam currencies fell 0.3%, as investors awaited the minutes of the Fed's last meeting for an affirmation of easy monetary policy.

Even after repeated signals from the Fed that interest rates will remain static, expectations have risen around the globe of inflation and eventual policy tightening as more countries emerge from COVID-19 lockdowns.

The expectations of higher inflation, particularly in the developed world, have pressured risk-driven assets.

"With some exceptions, EM FX has typically not enjoyed rising US inflation and especially not high inflation regimes," analysts at Deutsche Bank said.

"From a growth perspective, Q2 and Q3 outturns will flatter emerging markets due to base effects from last year but there remain doubts about the persistence of the recovery due to a lagging vaccination roll-out, fiscal tightening and slowing Chinese demand."

Chile's peso shed 0.4% as copper prices fell further from record highs.

The peso has come under pressure from concerns over radical, market-unfriendly legislature, after Chile's ruling party failed to secure a majority in the body that will draft a new Chilean constitution.

Mexico's peso rose slightly after President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he was confident the central bank will act to control inflation, which rose in April to its highest level since Dec. 2017.

The Mexican central bank held interest rates steady at a meeting last week, but sparked speculation over future hikes as inflation heats up in the country.

Investors were also watching talks between the United States, Canada and Mexico on the new North American trade deal.

Latam stocks fell in early trade, with the MSCI's index of regional equities falling 1.1%.

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