According to latest numbers released by the National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), close to 5 million doses of covid-19 vaccines have been utilized across Pakistan to date. A total of 18.7 million doses (till June) have been arranged for which supplies are still coming—the country just recently received a batch of 1.2 million doses of AstraZeneca courtesy GAVI initiative; another batch is on the way. Meanwhile, Chinese Sinopharm, Sinovac and one-shot Cansino are also arriving in batches.
It is clear however that vaccine uptake is far from sufficient. Even as the country’s managers are procuring the vaccines, the uptake may prove detrimental to the country’s ability to get back to normalcy. The low uptake may be either due to a lack of awareness of the free vaccine and its availability or vaccine hesitancy owing to a plethora of reasons which may soon endanger national immunity. The closest indicator of low-uptake is how fast the government has opened access of the free vaccine to people aged 30 and above. In the most recent update, the NCOC is also allowing walk-in vaccination for all 18 years and above students studying abroad or those working abroad (with valid visas).
In an attempt to contextualize that, if there are 18.7 million doses, accounting for the fact that a share of the incoming vaccines also includes the one-shot Cansino vaccine, we can claim that between 11 and 12 million people will be fully vaccinated by June, of which about 2.5 million have already received full-inoculation (These are guesstimates since data for the exact doses procured and administered for each type of vaccine is not available). As a share, that’s about 5.7 percent of the country’s total population (or 16 percent of the urban population) but more precisely, 11 percent of the above-18 population. That means, by June, if all age groups above 18 are allowed to go to the vaccine centers to get their jabs, the current vaccines will only cover 11 percent of population group.
Worryingly, Gallup’s Covid attitude tracker survey for Mar-21 suggests that 64 percent people in Pakistan believe the threat of the virus has been exaggerated. This is not only concerning because it implies every 3 out of 5 people do not believe in the threat of the virus but also because this number used to be lower at 57 percent in Dec-20.
Moreover, less people are afraid they or someone they know would contract the virus than before, per the survey. Though 82 percent believe that SOPs (including masks) can prevent transmission of the virus, the earlier indicators do imply that new restrictions or lockdowns may not be met with voluntary compliance. More than a year in, it would be natural that a certain fatigue has set in. But more so, by comparison with next-door India, the outbreak of the virus in Pakistan has remained tempered.
That however should not mean that the threat of the virus is not still looming. There has been a surge in cases since Eid and only a week before that, the country had recorded over 8,000 cases in a day which is by far the highest since the peak in June of last year. Which is why, when the Gallup poll finds that nearly 45 percent of the population said covid is a foreign conspiracy, it is a problem. But more so, this belief has actually become more pronounced in the latest wave—this number used to be 42 percent in Dec-20.
Amidst this gloom however, the willingness to get vaccinated has improved from 38 percent during Dec to 65 percent in Mar-21, though 44 percent Pakistanis also said that they were not sure when/if they will be able to get the vaccine.
Two things are clear: the willingness to get vaccinated is growing as more people get vaccinated and spread the word which is extremely positive. As that happens, vaccine hesitancy will decrease and the fear of any major side effects will also be dispelled. But this also coincides with a growing belief that the virus and its negative affects are exaggerated or not true at all. The other thing is that Pakistan simply does not have enough vaccines to go around yet.
What needs to happen? The NCOC has decided to relax a number of SOPs that were imposed during Ramadan and Eid. By next week, outdoor restaurants will be allowed to remain open till midnight, the tourism sector will be able to resume activity (guidelines will be introduced separately), while education institutes across districts where positivity rate is less than 5 percent will also be permitted to re-open. Restoring mobility and business activity cannot be underestimated. But as the government slowly reopens the country, it must arrange funds for more vaccines (which is itself a herculean task) and it must also work on increasing uptake and target its communication activities toward hesitant communities. Whichever way we look at it, inoculation is the only decided route for the country to free itself from the tight clutches of the deadly virus.
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