Hard choices

President Biden inherited a bad deal which diminished his bargaining power over Afghanistan pullout. And now America's exit from Afghanistan increasingly looks like a bad idea even before the planned full withdrawal date of August 31. Provincial capitals are falling to the Taliban onslaught one after another, leaving the Ashraf Ghani government isolated. This has left a power vacuum in a war-ridden country which could have serious security and economic repercussions for Afghanistan and its neighbours - especially Pakistan.

The situation in Afghanistan is becoming increasingly chaotic and there is heightened concern over refugees coming to Pakistan, as well as possible uptick in terrorist activities. This could deal a serious blow to the improved security situation in Pakistan, which was achieved after a long fight against terrorism on our soil. This has landed Pakistan in a difficult situation. The unfortunate part is that the US and Pakistan seem at odds over the end-game in Afghanistan. While Pakistan's top officials are blaming the US on leaving a mess in Afghanistan, the Americans expect Pakistan to manage the fallout and allow refugees in.

While different stakeholders are interacting on various forums to arrive at a peace deal, the rapid Taliban advances on the battlefield may make it near impossible for the warring factions to reach an agreement over power-sharing formula. Official American statements have made it abundantly clear that they want the Ashraf Ghani government and the Afghan military to reach a deal with the Taliban, after the US spent billions of dollars on building and equipping the Afghan security forces. On the other hand, it seems that the Ashraf Ghani government wants America to stay and somehow effect a peace deal. But the ground reality of growing Taliban ascendency is undeniable.

The Taliban do not want to negotiate with the Ashraf Ghani administration, as they do not accept or recognize the government. The Ashraf Ghani administration wants Taliban to negotiate while the former holds on to power. There is a clear deadlock. Earlier, Pakistan had supported the installation of an interim government in Afghanistan followed by fresh elections after the US exit. But that no longer seems possible.

The onus falls on the US as the superpower is leaving without ensuring a peaceful transfer of power. Two decades ago, the US came into Afghanistan but is now leaving behind a country at war with itself. Pakistan had aligned with the US during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and also later after 9/11. Now it seems that Pakistan is being turned into a scapegoat while the US is leaving Afghanistan in a turmoil.

This could have serious security and economic repercussions for Pakistan. The war on terror in the last two decades had inflicted huge direct and indirect costs on the economy. Foreign investment diminished. Brain drain speeded up. Overall economic confidence eroded. Now, slowly things are shaping up as overall confidence is building because of improved security environment. The economy is also bouncing back after the last boom and bust cycle. The government is making efforts to ensure inclusive economic growth and to entice foreign investors by improving business conditions and climate.

All these efforts and plans are now under great risk due to fast-deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. The Ashraf Ghani government is seen as closely allied with India and the Indian lobbying is aimed at cornering Pakistan. Given the clear US tilt towards India, Pakistan is weighing other options (possibly China and Russia), as stated by the PM and his National Security Advisor. However, there might not be other options in a true sense. China is dealing with its own international issues and usually the country remains at distance from others' conflicts. Pakistan is also working on increasing its ties with Russia. The recent singing of North-South gas pipeline deal (as against the wish of Sui companies and SAPM on energy) is possibly also aimed at enhancing security ties with Russia.

Pakistan's maneuvering is perhaps in line with the geostrategic shift in the region. But this may not provide any comfort to the worsening situation in Afghanistan. The USA's growing reliance on India, which is not an immediate neighbor of Afghanistan, to bring peace in Afghanistan is not practical or viable. The trio of the Ashraf Ghani administration, India and the US can only work with the presence of US military in Afghanistan. Otherwise, this could be a recipe for disaster. The USA should revisit its strategy and bring players with skin in the game to have an amicable solution to Afghanistan's security situation. Sooner it is done, the better it is.

The legitimacy of Ashraf Ghani administration is becoming weaker as Taliban expand their territorial control. At this stage, it appears that peace in Afghanistan won't be possible without bringing Taliban to the table. And that may not happen without bringing Pakistan into the equation. Otherwise, the situation is likely to worsen, and Pakistan would be at the receiving end of increased terrorism and refugee influx, which the debt-ridden country does not have the resources to deal with. Hard choices stare key stakeholders in the face. And Pakistan is no exception.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2021