CHICAGO: Sinking consumer sentiment accelerated a fall in US Treasury yields on Friday amid low trading volume as the market looked to the Federal Reserve and upcoming data for signs that could push rates higher.
The benchmark 10-year yield, which traded as low as 1.293%, was last down 6.7 basis points at 1.3001%. That was about 17 basis points above a six-month low of 1.127% reached on Aug. 4.
The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 70.2 in the first half of August from a final reading of 81.2 in July. That was the lowest level since 2011 and there have been only two larger declines in the index over the past 50 years. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would remain unchanged at 81.2.
The big drop, combined with thin liquidity in the market and concerns over the Delta variant of the coronavirus, helped drive Treasury yields lower, according to Ben Jeffery, US rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
Yields, which move inversely to prices, had been on an upward trajectory over the past week that showed some potential for breaking out of the market's "unrelenting lower-rate mentality," but solid auctions of 10-year notes and 30-year bonds this week stopped the move in its tracks, said George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG in New York.
He added that the release next week of minutes from the Fed's July meeting and the central bank's Jackson Hole event later this month could fuel an uptick in yields.
"And if (the August employment report) is strong in the first week of September, that's what I'm looking for to make this conclusive 'hey this was a bottom in rates and we're turning higher,'" Goncalves said.
The Fed meeting minutes due out on Wednesday should "detail how close policymakers are to making key decisions" concerning tapering of the central bank's asset purchases, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research report on Friday. It noted that with the economy on track to reaching major recovery benchmarks earlier than anticipated, Morgan Stanley recently moved up its expectation of Fed tapering to December 2021 from March 2022.
Inflation data this week did little to shake up the market.
It showed that US consumer price increases slowed in July even as they remained at a 13-year high on a yearly basis amid tentative signs inflation has peaked. Producer prices increased more than expected in July, suggesting that inflation could remain elevated as strong demand continues to hurt supply chains.
Inflation expectations eased a little on Friday after the breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) climbed as high as 2.616% on Thursday. It was last at 2.581%. After selling $126 billion of notes and bonds this week, the US Treasury will hold auctions for $27 billion of 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $8 billion of 30-year TIPS on Thursday.
Cash flowing into the Fed's reverse repurchase agreement facility on Friday topped the $1 trillion mark for a third-straight day.
A closely watched part of the yield curve that measures the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes was last 5.26 basis points flatter at 108.17 basis points.
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