Now that Vladimir Putin is well into his much-feared full-scale assault on Ukraine, Western analysts are consumed by what seems like an existential question for Europe’s security: what is the Russian endgame here? After America and its NATO allies expressed no interest in putting boots on the Ukrainian soil, Putin must have felt he had a free pass. Western economic sanctions will certainly cost Russia dearly in long term, but they will do little to stop the shredding of international rules and norms currently underway.
History buffs are having a sense of déjà vu – a feeling that Russia’s actions in recent months are the end of something (post-WW2 equilibrium and relative peace) and the beginning of another (territorial conquests and wartime alliances). When Hitler invaded Poland in September 1939, who knew it was the start of another World War that would last six long years? Two years later in December 1941, who thought that Japan’s attack on US base in Pearl Harbor would be the turning point to liberate Europe?
Naturally, folks are worried about short-term uncertainties. With several indices in the red, investors and analysts are frantically trying to make sense of how the debt, equities, commodities and currency markets will behave if the crisis deepened. Europe is concerned about its energy security and financial stability. Facing a tough mid-term election later this year, the Biden administration seems perturbed about rising pump prices. Just looking at crude oil, wheat and corn futures is filling importing-countries with dread.
Save for a multilateral military response, there is not much that the West can do to stop Putin from doing whatever he is up to in Ukraine. Some cynical commentators have even suggested that the West is hoping for Russian forces to get done quickly and leave that country soon, so that markets can calm down and goods from the region’s ports and pipelines can flow undisturbed. That’s too cynical a view – but it is also clear that the West is merely a bystander as a sovereign country they support gets overrun.
Initial reports suggest that the Russian military advance hasn’t been as swift as they expected, as the Ukrainians are putting up a strong fight despite being outnumbered in terms of troops and weaponry. It’s still initial days of war, and Russia is expected to eventually prevail. But this situation suggests that Putin may have trouble holding on to the territory, as guerilla warfare may keep them unsettled. This may keep Russians occupied for some time, bringing relief to neighboring NATO countries.
Will Putin change his mind? Russia currently stands diplomatically isolated, putting even its close partners China and India in a bind. The West has quickly closed ranks in this crisis, sending wave after wave of sanctions targeting the Russian financial system and its ruling elite. Several European countries have now banned their airspace for Russian airlines, amid growing likelihood for a trans-Atlantic flight ban. Russian ships are under threat of seizure at international seaports as financial sanctions hit holding companies.
While the West is responding by sealing Russia off from global economy, Putin’s aggression has sadly demonstrated that “might is right.” This may lead to grave consequences for global and regional peace in the future. Smaller countries will begin to feel more intimidated by their larger neighbor(s). Mutual distrust will rise and regional cooperation will suffer. Growing arms race will divert resources from development towards military buildups. The worst-hit will be developing countries, where territorial conflicts are rife.
By the time Putin is done with Ukraine, the world may have become even more divided on diplomatic lines. For Pakistan, joining the Russia-China sphere is fraught with risks as long as its economy is highly dependent on dollar inflows (external loans, exports, remittances, etc.) from Western countries. To avoid becoming wedged between the two blocs, Pakistan must continue to advocate for a rules-based international order that protects sovereignty of vulnerable countries and human rights in occupied territories.
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