Every now and then life gives a reality check. That rare shock that blind side people and forces them into a rude awakening. All along Pakistan’s social, political and economic timelines, there have been several such incidences when life should have given Pakistanis a reality check. But it didn’t, not at least to jolt the state and society into action. Would this time be any different, given the confluence of four forces is upon the country, in a way that was perhaps never seen before.
On the political front, there is a crisis of epic proportions. Not that Pakistan has not had its fair share of political crisis. But at least one arm of the state or one party always held a dominant hand. If it wasn’t the military, then it was politicos or civil society. If it wasn’t the PPP, then it was the PML-N. If nothing else, the judiciary had become strictly one-sided to give weigh to one faction or the other.
But nothing like this has happened before, not least in recent generations. The fate of current coalition hangs by two seats; the largest province is seen to be technically without a government; the reputation of the powers that be is being challenged; the judiciary’s recent decisions aren’t necessarily lopsided to give sway to only one of the political parties.
Meanwhile, an otherwise polite urban educated middle class (including women and children) that in recent history used to only engage in drawing room discussions are agitated enough to burn police vans throw stones and risk their lives for a change. They have come out not for the meal, not for cash handouts; not because their madarassa leader or feudal lord told them so.
Coinciding with these is an economic crisis of epic proportions as well. Both debt sustainability and current account sustainability are at serious risk. Decisions to make them sustainable will break the back of macro economy. More importantly, it will break individual lives. Not that these decisions likely to be taken under IMF’s programme aren’t necessary. They are necessary but insufficient to turnaround the economy in the long run.
The unfortunate reality is that hardly any of the people who have sat in the cabinet over the last 20 years have done anything beyond quick fixes or package-based economics. Not even Khan, who pitched himself as a savior, rolled out serious wholesale policy reforms beyond tweaking, investigations, mere price signals and packages.
Institutional building, governance reforms and organizational strengthening is on no one's agenda - only brick and mortar thinking, band aids – and false or early celebrations, which are often a result of mere luck.
Even the so-called country’s best public sector institution has not witnessed institutional strengthening since Dr Ishrat – some fancy products and media hype for sure – but not institutional strengthening. There seems to be little to no realization that packages and shining presentations won’t fix food security dangers, productivity failures, human capital shortages, or bring about technology growth. Even most of the imported technocrats do not appreciate these challenges nor work on building institutions and organizations; nor do their fans from capital-market and corporate sector yuppies. Be assured, without wholesale reforms, the country will be back to square one again.
Quite unlike in the past, external environment is not favorable either.
There is no US-led foreign war expected on Pakistan’s western front playing puppet to which can help get Pakistan those military and/or civilian dollars. Russia-Ukraine war is not helping the external environment either; nor is US-China soft riffs. Covid risks still exist on the global spectrum by the way, even if Pakistanis may think otherwise. And lastly, climate change is gradually manifesting in a way that even those in denial or those who smirked and took it lightly are become victims of it.
In the meanwhile, a youth bulge is upon us. A poor, uneducated, unhealthy, malnutrition army of youth will soon be marching into adulthood - their hopes and aspirations substantially different from those of their parents and grandparents, courtesy social media that has taught them of the world. They also may not be as docile.
The opiate “that patience is virtue” was sold well to yester generation to remain quiet; the young now know that the fruit of patience that yester generation was hoping to eat at some point has become rotten. Courtesy real time accesses to the world via social media, the young know that they can demand their rights by all sorts of means. Once that realization sets in, who will command respect to hold population together at a time when polarization and intolerance is increasing?
Is there any one among the party ranks across any political party who commands that respect – the likes of PML-N can’t even seem to put their own party together; nor can they take decisions without going to London, whereas the PPP is already reduced to a provincial party. Perhaps that’s why Khan is still relevant. But then Khan may not be able to deliver too; the performance of his term till a few weeks ago is an example of it. They were also trying same old same old package based economic management; with a dash of welfare and sprinkle of administrative controls. That’s now how 21st century economies work.
In 5-10 years when the aging party leaders – Nawaz, Shahbaz, Zardari, Khan – become too old or unwell to hold the party together (let alone the county), then who will fill the gap. Their kids? Do they really have necessary political shrewdness, or do they really command respect across length and breadth of the country. Or will it be the powers that be, when in fact more than 30 years of military rule has delivered damp squib for the country? Or will it be some kind of coalition concoction or perhaps 90s like musical chairs being orchestrated by the aliens?
Unless one assumes that Pakistan and Pakistanis soon become mature enough to have strong well-functioning coalitions, the end may be nigh! In consideration of the political, economic and external challenges, and externalities like climate change (henceforth a permanent fixture), political leaders should think long and hard before playing politics on the future of the country’s youth for this time may indeed be different.
Unlike earlier decades, in sacrificing the future of burgeoning youth for their short term, short sighted political gains, this time political leaders might sacrifice their own future – perhaps their own relevance and existence. Lest one forgets, human history is replete with examples of kings, dictators, and political leaders living life of nobodies in exiles.
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