ISLAMABAD: IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC) on Thursday projected a shortfall of 18 percent in water shares of Punjab and Sindh during Rabi 2022 as total availability of water is estimated at 30.199 MAF.
These figures were finalized by the IAC meeting convened to approve the Rabi 2022-23 anticipated water availability criteria from October 1 2022 to March 31, 2023 under the chairmanship of Zahid Hussain Junejo, Chairman IRSA / Member IRSA Sindh.
All IRSA Members, Chairman Wapda, Chief Engineering Advisor, Member (Power) Wapda, JS (Water) MoWR, Wapda Advisors, GM&CE TBD and T5 HPP, Secretaries Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) of Punjab and Sindh and their representatives, representatives of PIDs of KP and Balochistan, DGs of Provincial Agricultural Departments (PADs) of Punjab and Sindh and their representatives, DG Met Department, Director (Opr) / Secretary IRSA along with senior technical personnel of IRSA attended the meeting.
IAC reviewed the Kharif 2022 system operation and observed that the actual Rim-Station inflows of 91.47 MAF till September 29 remained 14% less than forecast volume of 106.51 MAF and 9% less with respect to 10-year average of 100.42 MAF.
The Early Kharif months of April, May and June were recorded as the driest, while the late Kharif months of July, August September were the wettest on record. The provincial canal withdrawals were 41% short with respect to shares.
IAC was apprised that the imbalance between provincial withdrawals was due to less utilization / closing of respective canals as the rivers were flooded. The actual system losses were 3.58 MAF as compared to anticipation of 14.43 MAF. Downstream Kotri releases remained at 38.09 MAF due to catastrophic rains in the Indus Basin, especially the lower catchments. IAC was informed that as a result of flooding of the Indus Main Stem, 19.93 MAF of gains occurred.
IAC discussed the recommendations of IRSA Technical Committee (ITC) meeting held on September 26, 2022 and approved the likely anticipated water availability at the four Rim-Stations of 21.67 MAF for Rabi 2022-23 which was about 3% more than previous year and about 4% less than 10-year average.
IAC was informed that the forecast and anticipated system operation was conducted by utilizing the Water Apportionment Accord (WAA)-Tool, developed jointly by MoWR, IRSA, PIDs, WAPDA under technical and financial assistance from the Australian Government through CSIRO and ACIAR.
The likely provincial availability, approved at the respective canal heads was as follows: (i) Punjab, 16.233 MAF; (ii) Sindh, 12.243 MAF; (iii) KP (CRBC), 0.701 MAF; and (iv) Balochistan, 1.022 MAF. The total anticipated availability would be 30.199 MAF of water during Rabi.
According to IRSA, the likely availability at the canal heads of 30.19 MAF was about 10% higher than last year’s availability of 27.43 MAF and 2% higher than 10-year average of 29.68 MAF. The Basin-wise shortage for Rabi 2022-23 was approved as 18%. IAC also approved the WAA-Tool anticipated Indus and JC Zones losses as 8.6% and 0%, respectively, subject to the condition that they will be monitored till 31st October 2022 and subsequently updated accordingly. PID Punjab however, showed reservations on the adopted percentages for the losses in Indus Zone and advocated 0% losses based on matching year statistics.
DG Met Department said that as per their analysis, below normal rains were expected across the basin for the next three months. However, moderately above normal rains were expected over South East Sindh in areas adjoining Indian Rajasthan.
The IAC also approved Balochistan’s request of additional 0.149 MAF for Kachhi Canal, as on time arrangement due to dilapidated condition of agriculture in Balochistan after the catastrophic rains in Late Kharif 2022.
Additionally, IAC approved Chashma Barrage Closure as requested by Wapda for a period of 15 days between the possible dates from Jan 01 to 15 2023, which would be synchronized with closure schedule of Guddu and Sukkur Barrages. During the Closure, Chashma Reservoir would be constrained between levels 638.15 ft to 640.00 ft with outflow restrictions between 15,000 cfs to 30,000 cfs.
Chairman Wapda and Tarbela authorities also gave detailed briefings to the forum regarding Tunnel 5 closure and said that the T5 HPP was a project of national importance. After thorough deliberations, IAC unanimously approved the Tarbela Tunnel 5 Closure for a period of 33 months from September 2022 to May 2025. Chairman Wapda and JS (Water) MoWR acknowledged and appreciated the efforts of IRSA and the PIDs in approving the requisite closure of T5.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2022
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