By-polls to 8 NA, 3 Punjab PA seats tomorrow: PTI’s prospects still bright?

ISLAMABAD: A decisive contest is expected tomorrow (Sunday) on eight National and three Punjab Assembly constituencies as the actual outcome may definitively determine the efficacy of Chairman Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf Imran Khan’s narrative, post the success of the 9 April ‘vote of no confidence’, over that of the 11-party Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM).

All NA seats were vacated by the PTI and Imran Khan is contesting seven of the eight NA bye-elections (with one being contested by Shah Mehmud Qureshi’s daughter).

The by-polls will be held for NA-24 (Charsadda-II), NA-31 (Peshawar-V), NA-22 (Mardan-III), NA-108 (Faisalabad-VIII), NA-157 (Multan-IV), NA-118 (Nankana Sahib-II), NA-237 (Malir-II), NA-239 (Korangi-I), PP-139 (Sheikhupura-V), PP-241 (Bahawalnagar-V) and PP-209 (Khanewal-VII).

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has postponed the by-election on one NA vacant seat from Kurram tribal district NA-45 due to the law and order situation. Imran Khan has been on the warpath almost daily since his ouster and has been holding extremely well-attended Jalsas – a no mean feat that may well translate into his victory in the bye-polls. In contrast, the government has been on the defensive and its narrative of taking economic decisions at odds with its political considerations in the national interest has yet to find any traction.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the PTI has been in power for more than nine years, the PDM-backed candidates may be unable to give a tough time to Imran Khan on the vacant seats, according to an anecdotal survey conducted by Business Recorder.

On NA-22, Mardan-III, PTI chairman has a slight edge over Maulana Mohammad Qasim of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JIU-F) backed by the rest of the political parties and the PDM. In NA-24 (Charsadda-II), PTI chairman Imran Khan will face Awami National Party (ANP) provincial president Aimal Wali Khan, backed by PDM and its allied parties, including Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). According to observers, the ANP candidate is unlikely to give a tough time to the PTI chairman on the slot left vacant following the resignation by PTI MNA Fazal Muhammad.

Aimal Wali Khan had lost the contest for the provincial seat from this constituency in the 2018 general elections and his father Asfandyar Wali Khan had lost the NA seat to the PTI candidate, in spite of this being Asfandyar Wali Khan’s home constituency.

In NA-31 (Peshawar-V), former MNA and ANP heavyweight Haji Ghulam Ahmad Bilour will test his luck against PTI chairman Imran Khan. However, the Business Recorder’s survey indicates that the PTI chairman’s position is strong in the old city despite being a home constituency of the Bilour family.

In Punjab, the by-polls will also be held on three vacant seats – NA-108 (Faisalabad-VIII), NA-157 (Multan-IV), and NA-118 (Nankana Sahib-II) – Imran Khan is contesting on two seats except for NA-157 (Multan-IV) where Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s daughter Mehar Bano Qureshi will contest against Yousaf Raza Gilani’s son Ali Musa Gilani of the PPP. Sources told BR that this will be a tough contest, as the fathers of both candidates have a considerable following.

In NA-118, Nankana Sahib-II, it is expected to be a tight contest between Imran Khan and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) candidate Dr Shezra Mansab Ali Khan, while Syed Afzal Hussain Shah of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) is also in the race. Dr Shezra Mansab Ali Khan is the joint candidate of the PDM and other allied parties.

On NA-108 (Faisalabad-VIII), there are a total of 12 candidates in the run, but the real contest is expected between PTI chairman Imran Khan and PDM’s joint candidate Abid Sher Ali of PML-N. In Karachi, the by-polls will be held on NA-237 (Malir-II) and NA-239 (Korangi-I) which had fallen vacant when PTI’s Jameel Ahmad Khan and Mohammad Akram Cheema resigned as per their Chairman’s directives.

In NA-237 (Malir-II), PPP’s Abdul Hakim Baloch is the PDM and allied parties’ joint candidate. While the 2018 elections reports indicated that PTI had considerable assistance from the establishment that enabled it to sweep the polls in Karachi yet political pundits are reluctant to bet against Imran Khan given his current popularity wave.

This constituency is regarded as the PPP’s stronghold but it may not win this seat because of the provincial government’s poor performance and public wrath due to rising prices.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022