Quite out of nowhere, India and Pakistan have lately descended into a war of words that is reminiscent of the verbally-aggressive months after Modi government’s Kashmir annexation back in August 2019. The devastations of the pandemic had indirectly mellowed the rhetoric on both sides. The ceasefire at the line of control in early 2021 had also helped to cool down the temperatures. Now, all of a sudden, things have erupted again, which further downgrades any prospects of reviving frozen bilateral relations.
The Indian foreign minister’s anti-Pakistan statements at the UN Security Council last week, and his Pakistani counterpart Bilawal Bhutto’s response to the charges in a much forceful manner, has set off a cycle of aggressive rebuttals and counter-statements. By equating Modi with OBL and RSS with the Nazis, the Pakistani FM has sparked protests in different Indian cities. In response, the PPP has decided to take out rallies to support its Chairman. Meanwhile, diplomatic salvos have continued on a daily basis.
Considering that there has (thankfully) been no new border conflict or terrorism incident, there is no compelling reason for the two countries to be at diplomatic loggerheads yet again. The new government in Pakistan, just as the old ones, started out by offering India meaningful dialogue on Kashmir followed by opening up of bilateral trade. With the Indian general elections still a year and a half away, the BJP government, too, should have no cause to double down on anti-Pakistan rhetoric this far in advance.
Be that as it may, it appears that the Indian government has decided to press Pakistan when the latter is vulnerable on several fronts, buffeted by crisis after crisis. The economy is severely short of dollar inflows, putting into question the capacity to pay for imports and retire foreign debt in the coming months. The reconstruction after the human and economic toll from the recent devastating floods is yet to commence. The terrorism threat is also raising its head again, with 2023 expected to be a difficult year on this front.
It is clear that the year 2022 did not go well for the BJP government’s long-running plans to diplomatically isolate Pakistan. Despite the previous Pakistani government’s fallout with the US, the new government was able to resurrect the US-Pakistan bilateral relationship. When the massive floods struck Pakistan in August, the US was the biggest donor by far in providing relief grants. Thanks to American and European cooperation, Pakistan was able to get off the FATF’s grey-list few months ago.
In addition, if the planned donor’s conference under the UN is held soon to help Pakistan deal with floods-related reconstruction costs, it will signal that Pakistan is not alone on the world stage. In this context, instead of trying to corner Pakistan, India should find ways to cooperate on issues of mutual interest, including security. The BJP government has long been playing the game of distracting from internal issues by targeting Pakistan. (Recently there have been reports of India-China border skirmishes).
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s strategy needs to be more than just showing India the mirror on the world stage. It should be focused on hard-nosed analysis of internal and external threats and then finding ways to mitigate them by seeking less confrontational ways. Being the bigger party, the onus is on India to lead the way and create a recrimination-free environment for bilateral engagement to take place.
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