NEW YORK: US natural gas futures rose about 1% to a one-week high on Tuesday as output remains lower than last month after extreme cold last week froze oil and gas wells in several producing basins.
Also supporting prices was a growing belief that Freeport LNG’s export plant in Texas was on track to start pulling in a lot more gas in coming weeks once it starts producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export.
But Freeport was on track to receive no natural gas from pipelines on Tuesday after taking in small amounts over the past 12 days, according to Refinitiv data.
The small gas price rise came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through Feb. 22 except for a few cold days around the Feb. 18-19 weekend. Traders noted that cold on the weekend does not boost gas use as much as during the workweek because usage is lower on weekends when many businesses are shut.
Freeport told Texas state regulators last week that it would start sending gas to one of three liquefaction trains at its long-closed export plant. The plant is waiting for permission from federal regulators to start loading LNG to free up space in its storage tanks. The liquefaction trains turn gas into LNG for export.
Many analysts have said they do not expect the plant to return to full power until mid March or later. A couple of Freeport’s customers - Japan’s JERA and Osaka Gas - have said they do not expect to get LNG from the plant until after March.
Freeport, the second biggest US LNG export plant, shut after a fire in June 2022. The energy market expects gas prices to rise once the plant starts producing LNG again. When operating at full power, Freeport can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet of gas into LNG each day. That is about 2% of total US daily gas production.
Federal regulators will hold a public meeting on Freeport on Feb. 11 to provide members of the community and other interested parties an opportunity to voice their concerns about Freeport’s restart plans and get an update on what’s happening at the plant.
Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 3.3 cents, or 1.3%, to $2.490 per million British thermal units at 9:25 a.m. EST (1425 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Jan. 31. Last week, the contract fell to its lowest since December 2020.
With interest in gas markets rising in recent weeks, open interest in the NYMEX front-month jumped to nearly 302,000 contracts on Monday, its highest since August 2021 for a sixth day in a row.
At the same time, the number of shares outstanding in the US Natural Gas Fund, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to track daily gas price movements, rose by 14.4 million on Monday to a fresh record high of 117.5 million.
That was the second biggest daily increase in UNG shares outstanding, following a record 15.7 million share increase in January, and caused total shares outstanding to more than double in less than two weeks.
Refinitiv said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states fell to 95.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, down from 98.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record of 99.8 bcfd in November 2022.
With milder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast US gas demand, including exports, would drop from 124.9 bcfd this week to 119.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv’s outlook on Monday.
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