There’s hope for a better tomorrow

Pakistan is undergoing testing times in political stability and economic sustainability. Hope for a better tomorrow in economy, off and on, knocks on the door but somehow it is not working out and ends up in ‘High Hopes’. One can take for reference the leads cited this very week.

While speaking at the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the High Commissioner of Nigeria has said that Nigeria is the most populous and the largest economy in Africa and ‘Look Africa’ initiative by the government of Pakistan is a good step towards the enhancement of mutual trade and economic ties.

Nigeria’s GDP touches 500 billion US dollars, the total global imports of Nigeria are above $60 billion while the total exports of Nigeria are above $63 billion. Experts suggest that there is a considerable potential for both the countries to take the trade volume to at least $1 billion.

The reality against this ambitious target is the current dip in imports from Nigeria, which drastically decreased from $50 million to $4 million. In the meantime, the exports from Pakistan to Nigeria also contracted from $67 million to $48 million.

At around the same time the Ambassador of Turkiye, while addressing the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), said that in the long-term bilateral trade volume between Pakistan and Turkiye can reach USD 20-25 billion.

The potential is stated to be in modern agricultural technologies; advanced defense production; alternative and renewable energy; food & beverages industry and hospitality & tourism as Turkiye is at par with many other developed countries in these sectors of the economy. Whereas, the current bilateral trade volume between the two countries is only USD 1.3 billion.

Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Association (PPMA) Chairman at an official forum claimed that an investment of $1 billion in pharmaceutical sector in the Special Economic Zones is quite achievable.

Reportedly, Pakistan was the world’s leading manufacturer and importer in the pharmaceutical sector in the 1990s, and had its market presence in the region, Europe and the Americas. In the Information Technology sector countless opportunities are cited for tripling the quantum of earning through IT exports.

At the summit ‘Dust to Development: Investment Opportunities’ was held in August where participants from Pakistan very ably presented their government’s seriousness about tapping mineral and metal resources.

The primary objective of the summit was to bring together international investors, mining industry giants, corporate leaders, and government stakeholders to chalk out a roadmap for tapping mineral resources.

It was well participated by the investors from the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia (KSA). Notably, Saudi Arabia showed interest to invest in Pakistan’s $6 trillion estimated worth of mineral deposits.

KSA’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) seemed interested in investing in mining operations at the Reko Diq gold and copper mine project in Balochistan’s Chagai district as well. Presently, Canadian company Barrick Gold owns a 50 percent stake in the Reko Diq mine, with the remaining 50 percent owned by the governments of Pakistan and Balochistan.

Earlier, a refreshing hope was ignited in the much-needed exports of Pakistan. Dr Gohar Ejaz, Caretaker Federal Minister for Commerce and Industries and Production, upon assuming office, unveiled an ambitious agenda for Pakistan’s economic growth, setting a formidable target of 25 billion dollars in textile exports for the current year.

Alongside this, the minister pledged a swift revival of all shuttered industries within the country, with a tight deadline of just one month.

The minister also unveiled his vision of boosting Pakistan’s global exports to $80 billion, stating that the Ministry of Commerce is vigorously preparing the framework, where special focus would be on strategic export markets and potential products. The EU-27 zone is the largest export destination for Pakistani businesses, and the continuation of GSP+ will assist Pakistan, he said.

Unfortunately, however, the situation on ground does not appear too promising. Textile and clothing exports fell for the third month in a row due to growing production costs and liquidity crunch, according to statistics issued by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics this week.

The export value of textile and clothing exports shrank 9.95 per cent in the first quarter (July-September) FY24 to $4.12 billion from $4.58 billion in the corresponding period of last year.

The sincerity of the hope propellants cannot be doubted nor can their ambition to do something good for the fragile economy of the country be ignored. They have well presented the lead to cash in on. The critical issue is that movement on the ground in the right direction is conspicuous by its absence as much has spun out the control of the caretaker economic managers.

Rising inflation, unworkable lending rates, rising utility tariffs and fuel prices have contracted the local demand and the market. The money transaction is restricted to bare necessity. It has rendered industrial production unfeasible.

In the face of IMF programme conditions and the shortfall in government revenue collection due to economic slowdown, much of the deterrents to economic revival are extremely challenging.

But what is easily doable by the state is to cut down on revenue outflows in wasteful government expenditure and move out from sustaining loss-making public sector enterprises and the crippled power sector. Political stability above all is the turning point to usher in economic stability. This too is doable by the state.

“Hanging about hoping against hope that someone would turn on a light even when the reality is that it is highly unlikely”, is not an option. One needs to work hard to translate hopes into reality.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023