The peril of planning in the age of GAI: Embrace adaptation or risk ruthless irrelevance

It’s deeply concerning to hear policymakers, from Prime Ministers to Finance Ministers, crafting five-year economic plans without acknowledging the explosive advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative AI and the potential of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This approach guarantees flawed and ineffective systems, a stark indicator of a leadership disconnected from the realities of our rapidly evolving world.

Planning for the future necessitates a clear understanding of the present. Ignoring the transformative potential of AI is a recipe for economic stagnation, social unrest, and missed opportunities. Policymakers must embrace the AI revolution, actively preparing their nations for the challenges and opportunities it presents. This demands fostering an environment for AI research and development, investing in human capital to leverage AI effectively, and developing ethical frameworks to guide this critical technology. The future belongs to those who can adapt and lead in the age of AI. The alternative is to be left behind in a world irrevocably reshaped by these powerful tools.

Five-year plans were once valuable tools in a bygone era – pre-internet, and certainly pre-AI. Today, the 4F – Science, Technology, Globalization, and Brainpower Development – are reshaping the world at a staggering pace. Traditional planning methodologies simply cannot keep up.

Generative AI, exemplified by Devin, Devika, and the open-source Grok-1, represents a paradigm shift far exceeding chatbots like GPT-4, Gemini, or autopilot systems. These tools possess the potential to revolutionize every facet of our existence – from economics and social structures to public service delivery.

While there are thousands of prominent software engineering firms globally, the true power lies in what AI pioneers like Devin and Devika are building. Their creations have the potential to generate millions of software engineers in record time. Imagine the impact on impoverished nations, historically plundered by the global economic system, if they were suddenly equipped with a workforce of thousands of AI engineers. The ramifications for their economies, societies, political landscapes, and resource management would be seismic.

Economic transformation:

• Automation and efficiency: AI engineers can design and implement intelligent automation systems across industries, optimizing production, logistics, and resource allocation. Imagine AI-powered agriculture maximizing crop yields with minimal water waste, or AI streamlining manufacturing processes with unprecedented efficiency.

• New industries and jobs: The rise of AI will undoubtedly displace some jobs. However, it will also create entirely new industries and necessitate a workforce skilled in managing and collaborating with AI tools. Nations equipped with AI talent will be best positioned to capitalize on these opportunities.

• Democratization of innovation: Generative AI can democratize innovation, allowing smaller countries to compete with established giants. Imagine AI-powered scientific research tools accelerating breakthroughs in fields like medicine and renewable energy, previously dominated by wealthy nations.

Social & political restructuring:

• Enhanced Public Services: AI can personalize and automate public services like healthcare, education, and social security. Imagine AI-powered healthcare systems providing preventative care and personalized treatment plans, or AI delivering tailored educational programs to each student.

• Informed decision-making: Governments can leverage AI for data analysis and predictive modeling, leading to more informed policy decisions. Imagine AI analyzing crime statistics to proactively address hotspots or AI predicting economic trends to prepare for potential downturns.

• Shifting power dynamics: The rise of AI could lead to a shift in global power dynamics. Countries with strong AI capabilities will have a significant advantage on the world stage.

Resource management:

• Sustainability and conservation: AI can analyze vast environmental datasets, optimizing resource utilization, promoting sustainability, and combating climate change. Imagine AI-powered systems for optimizing irrigation, minimizing resource waste, and predicting environmental changes.

• Resource exploration and utilization: AI can assist in the efficient exploration and utilization of natural resources. Imagine AI-powered systems identifying new energy sources or AI guiding resource extraction with minimal environmental impact.

The digital divide: The disparity in access to technology and information, has long been a barrier to development. However, the emergence of generative AI tools and advancements in artificial intelligence as a whole hold immense promise for shrinking this gap at an unprecedented pace.

Traditionally, bridging the digital divide has been a slow process. The internet, for instance, took over four decades to achieve its current level of penetration.

Generative AI, however, offers a revolutionary leap forward. These AI-powered tools can:

• Simplify complex tasks: Generative AI can automate tasks that previously required technical expertise. Imagine AI software engineers creating user-friendly interfaces or writing basic code, making technology more accessible to those without extensive training.

• Break down language barriers: AI translation tools powered by generative AI can translate information and services into local languages, empowering individuals who wouldn’t have access otherwise.

• Personalize learning: Generative AI can create tailored educational experiences, catering to individual learning styles and overcoming limitations in traditional education systems.

This rapid advancement in AI accessibility has the potential to completely transform the economic, social, and political landscape of developing nations. Imagine a scenario where:

• Small businesses in remote areas can leverage AI tools for marketing and communication, competing on a more level playing field with larger companies.

• Farmers can utilize AI-powered agricultural apps to optimize their crops and access real-time market data.

• Citizens can access government services and information in their native languages, fostering greater participation in civic life.

However, it’s important to acknowledge that challenges remain. Equitable access to the internet and the infrastructure to support AI are crucial. Additionally, ensuring responsible development and deployment of AI to prevent bias and exploitation is vital.

Overall, the potential of generative AI to bridge the digital divide is significant.

However, these advancements also present challenges:

• Job displacement: AI automation might lead to widespread unemployment, particularly in sectors reliant on repetitive tasks. Governments need to develop retraining programmes and social safety nets to mitigate this impact.

• Ethical considerations: Ethical frameworks must be established to prevent bias and ensure responsible development and deployment of AI. Issues like data privacy and existential risks posed by AGI demand careful consideration.

The looming shift: How AGI will reshape everything

Policymakers, economic advisors, and even supposedly forward-thinking economists are woefully behind in considering the immense impact of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This technology won’t simply refine existing processes; it has the potential to create a world far beyond our wildest dreams.

Imagine millions, even billions, of robots imbued with AGI surpassing human intelligence. These machines could tackle any task imaginable, from the mundane (cleaning drains, mining) to the highly specialized (brain surgery, engineering, software development). The entire spectrum of human professions, from agriculture and manufacturing to education and energy production, could be revolutionized by these intelligent machines.

The timeline for AGI’s arrival remains uncertain. Visionaries like Elon Musk predict its arrival by the mid-2025, while others suggest it may already be here. Just as the sudden emergence of Devin and Devika surprised us, AGI’s arrival could be closer than we think. Regardless of the exact date, one thing is certain – the world will be irrevocably transformed.

Human civilization, even human biology itself, may be fundamentally altered. The systems built on inequality will crumble as these technologies democratize opportunity and income.

Brain-computer interfaces could further disrupt the status quo. The impact on those lacking specific skillsets is unclear, but one thing’s for sure: AI will change everything.

The call to action is clear: we must prepare. Obsolete, self-important, or incompetent ministers have a stark choice – adapt and improve, or be ruthlessly rendered irrelevant by these advancements. Leaders must embrace the coming AI revolution, fostering research and development, preparing workforces to collaborate with intelligent machines, and establishing ethical frameworks to guide this powerful technology.

Here are some key considerations for policymakers:

• Education and reskilling: The rise of AGI will necessitate a complete rethinking of education systems. Emphasis should shift towards critical thinking, creativity, and the ability to collaborate effectively with AI tools. Reskilling programmes will be vital to ensure everyone can find their place in this new world.

• Universal Reasonable Income (URI): With widespread job displacement a possibility, nations may need to consider URI programmes to ensure all citizens have a reasonable standard of living.

• Regulation and ethics: However, robust regulations and ethical frameworks are needed to prevent bias, promote transparency, and mitigate potential risks associated with AGI development and deployment.

Ignoring the potential of AGI is akin to leading blindfolded into a rapidly changing future. By proactively preparing and embracing these advancements, we can ensure a smoother transition towards a world transformed by intelligent machines, a world where opportunity and prosperity are not reserved for the privileged few.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024