The Senate circus

Senate results are in, but the action is far from over. In fact, it may have just begun, as the race for Chairman Senate kicks off. There are all sorts of permutations and combinations out there – none simple. Does Zardari’s game plan have more steam to stretch beyond securing more than expected seats in the upper house? Will the ruling party be able to finally take the Chair being the single largest party? Will the independents still be the kingmakers?

No one knows for certain. But here is an attempt to outline few of the many possible (and probable) scenarios. The PML-N’s strength now stands at 33, assuming all the ‘independent’ candidates will back the party. In case, both PPP (20) and PTI (12) decide to contest for the Chair – the winner will have to secure more than the aggregate votes of others.

In the bid to secure at least 53 votes, the role of independents become significant. The PML-N allies, PKMAP and NP, both have a considerable presence with five senators each. This would take the tally to 43 votes. Leaving out PPP and PTI with a combined strength of 32, PML-N would be left to require 10 of the 29 remaining votes.

Fifteen of these 29 senators are independents. Two newly elected senators from FATA, by the time of writing this article, had met Nawaz Sharif and assured him of their support. With the kind of setback MQM has had in Sindh, it is highly unlikely to expect MQM to vote for PPP – which could make their five votes very crucial for PML-N. The JUI-F’s four votes could go anywhere, given the party’s track record – but JUI-F has been more fond of the winning ways, and could well put its weight behind PML-N.

The PML-N would still try and vow independents as well, because the way things have shaped up this time around, defections are just a blink away. The PML-N would want to have an added cushion beyond the minimum requirement of 53 votes. But luring the Balochistan senators could be an uphill task, especially after the recent change of Chief Minister in the province. The PPP has believed to “invested” quite some effort to make inroads in Balochistan, and it is likely that most senators would side with PPP.

To cut it short, PML-N can still win this by just trusting allies and without heavily relying on independents.For the PPP, it would be an uphill task to outnumber the PML-N, especially when the PTI has 12 votes. Nothing is certain in politics, but it is still safe to say the PTI would not back a PPP candidate, which makes PPP’s job more difficult. The PML-N, PTI and MQM together account for 50 seats, which means PPP will have to muster support from all other parties and independents, including the PML-N allies.

Another distant, yet probable option, given the PPP’s history is both the PML-N and PPP joining hands and share the spoils. Given the general elections are around the corner, this may not be a wise move. But some circles suggest, PPP already has little hopes from 2018 elections and may rather want to maximize whatever is on offer in the Senate. Given the PML-N’s plans of legislations surrounding judiciary, a PPP-PML-N could still happen.

But PPP’s best bet to keep the PML-N out is to not field a candidate of its own and back a Balochistan independent for the Chair. After all “independence” comes with a heavy price. But this would only be fruitful if it is a two-way race. In case, PTI also contests, it will make things easier for the candidate securing highest votes in the first round. A re-balloting would then exclude the candidate coming third (PTI most likely), and the two-way race could then be decided on simple majority. PTI could still vote for an independent candidate from Balochistan, in the mutual interest of keeping PML-N away from the Chairmanship.

From what it appears – PML-N stands great chances. The only chance of PML-N not making it is when both PPP and PTI back an independent candidate. As the dust settles, things will surely become clearer.

Only that, it should not be this muddy at all. Senate elections, defections and horse trading have long been synonymous. These may still all be mere allegations, but that is not the point. Why can’t in this day and age, there be direct election based on an agreed formula of proportionate representation? Surely, this would just require some basic math skill. There is not a bigger insult to the voters, than the current Senate representation. Surely the upper house deserves better.