Lessons from illusionary revolutions

Amid escalating student-led protests and mounting unrest, Bangladesh’s long-serving Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, was compelled to resign and flee the country, highlighting deep dissatisfaction with her administration.

The unrest, marked by violent clashes and nearly 300 casualties, led to a nationwide curfew and her exit from country via military helicopter. The chaotic situation continued with additional violence and at least 20 more deaths on the day of her resignation.

Following these events, the military has established an interim government, with General Waker-Uz-Zaman pledging to restore order and seek justice.

As Bangladesh navigates this critical transitional period, the interim administration faces the formidable challenge of fostering stability, upholding human rights, and rebuilding public trust to guide the nation towards genuine democratic reform.

Throughout recent history, several countries have witnessed significant turmoil where leaders were either ousted or had to flee due to widespread protests and revolutions. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak (1928-2022) was removed from power in 2011 in the wake of Egyptian Revolution (the Arab Spring). He subsequently faced arrest and trial. In Tunisia, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (1936-2019) fled to Saudi Arabia amid the 2011 Arab Spring protests.

Libya’s Muammar al-Gaddafi (1942-2011) lost life during a civil war sparked by protests and armed rebellion. Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh (1942-2017) resigned and went into exile in Saudi Arabia in 2012 following extensive protests and uprisings.

Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi was detained at her home after a 2021 military coup. In Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country in 2022 due to widespread protests against his administration and now in 2024 Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina had to flee amid intense student-led protests and escalating violence.

Despite many dramatic changes in leadership, the aftermath often falls short of delivering substantial improvements for the countries involved.

The so-called revolutions and regime changes frequently lead to continued instability, economic deterioration, and persistent unrest. For instance, Egypt and Tunisia grappled with ongoing economic challenges and political instability following their respective uprisings.

Similarly, Libya and Yemen descended into prolonged conflicts and humanitarian crises. Myanmar remains under military control with severe international condemnation, while Sri Lanka then and Bangladesh now also face significant economic and social strains.

The changes at the top do not always translate into better governance or improved conditions for the populace, highlighting a recurring pattern where shifts in leadership do not necessarily lead to positive transformations or economic recovery/prosperity.

If we look at the achievements of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh witnessed impressive economic advancements, marked by a significant GDP growth and a notable shift in economic status. When she first assumed office in 1996, Bangladesh was classified as a low-income country, but her tenure saw the country evolving into a lower-middle-income status by early 2020.

During this period, Bangladesh experienced consistent and robust economic growth, with GDP expanding at an average annual rate of around 6-7%, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia. Per capita income also registered a substantial increase, reflecting improved living standards for many Bangladeshis.

Key to the economic transformation under Hasina were major infrastructure projects like the Padma Bridge and the Dhaka Metro Rail, which significantly enhanced connectivity and supported economic efficiency. The administration’s focus on digitalization, through initiatives like Digital Bangladesh, further accelerated economic progress by improving access to technology and fostering a digital economy.

Social programmes aimed at poverty reduction, healthcare expansion, and educational reforms, contributed to inclusive growth, while targeted efforts to eradicate extreme poverty uplifted the living conditions of the country’s poorest.

Despite these economic strides, challenges remained, including the Rohingya refugee crisis and ongoing issues in public health.

However, Bangladesh enjoyed enhanced global standing and improved international relations under Hasina’s rule, reflecting Bangladesh’s growing influence and stability in the world. These achievements underlined a period of considerable economic progress and development, although the leadership’s eventual forced resignation has marked a dramatic end to this era of transformation.

Apart from her achievement, Hasina earned notoriety for practicing brutal authoritarianism, particularly suppression of political opposition. Harassment and imprisonment of key opponents like Khaleda Zia, with charges often seen as politically motivated. Election processes faced allegations of manipulation, raising concerns about their legitimacy and fairness.

Human rights violations also remained a major issue, including reports of police brutality against protesters and the use of excessive force to quell dissent. Extrajudicial killings and disappearances of activists and perceived opponents further exacerbated these concerns.

Judicial manipulation has also been a notable concern under Sheikh Hasina’s regime, with accusations of abusing judiciary to target rivals through predisposed rulings and unfair trials. Using capital punishment in politically charged cases raised serious questions about due process of law. Press freedom faced curtailment, with media outlets facing censorship and journalists critical of the government experiencing harassment. The government controlled flow of information, including shutting down internet access during critical times.

Corruption allegations against Sheikh Hasina include misuse of public funds, especially in large infrastructure projects, and accusations of nepotism and favouritism in government appointments. Handling the Rohingya refugee crisis, while providing refuge, attracted criticism for its management and impact on local resources.

Civil society’s movements in Bangladesh advocating democratic reforms were violently repressed, and reports of state oppression and intimidation during elections hindered free participation in the democratic process. These factors overshadowed all her achievements and finally forced her to leave the office as well as the country.

The violent looting of Sheikh Hasina’s residence and clashes with law enforcement exposed the deep-seated unrest and lack of respect for legal institutions in Bangladesh. Despite Hasina’s departure, the country’s fate now rests with the army, raising concerns about a return to military dominance rather than genuine democratic transition and progress.

The interim government faces immense challenges, including restoring public trust, addressing significant economic losses, and managing the ongoing instability. The task ahead includes not only stabilizing the nation but also demonstrating that the new leadership possesses the experience and commitment to guide Bangladesh towards a better democratic and stable future.

In contrast to the situation in Pakistan, Gohar Ali Khan, Chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), suggested that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif should learn from Sheikh Hasina’s exit strategy.

While PTI advocates for tabdeeli (revolution) and rejects negotiation with politicians, it overlooks that Pakistan is currently under a hybrid system similar to Imran Khan’s tenure. Removing Shehbaz Sharif would not resolve the issues as the army’s control to continue to decide the country’s ultimate direction in any unrest.

Pakistan needs strengthening of democratic transformation and culture of tolerance, rather than any meaningless, ill-directed pseudo-revolution. Serious effort to transform the country on the part of PTI respecting the mandate of people would be to engage with other political parties, resolve issues through dialogue, and sign a commitment to strengthen democracy. Leaders must pledge to support the bone fide elected parliament and prime minister, avoiding any non-democratic actions.

Past instances, like support of Nawaz Sharif for Raja Pervez Ashraf, during Awami Tehreek protest led by Tahirul Qadri, and backing of Pakistan People’s Party to the prime minister during PTI’s 126-day protest, epitomize how political cooperation can stabilize democratic governance. For democracy to thrive, PTI must adopt a democratic mindset and collaborate with all the political parties.

This is the only way to strengthen democracy and steer the country onto a positive economic path. On the contrary, so-called revolutions that humiliate, punish, or depose and kill elected leaders often culminate in negative outcomes, as proved by recent experiences in Egypt.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024