The near-simultaneous explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies within a 24-hour period resulted in mass casualties in Lebanon, and sparked intense speculation about the next steps in Israel’s evolving cyber warfare strategy.
The Iranian ambassador was also injured in the pager explosion. These attacks, suspected to have been carried out through sophisticated cyber infiltration, have escalated tensions between Iran and Israel.
What remains uncertain is whether this incident is an isolated act of sabotage or part of a larger, more calculated effort to provoke or cripple Hezbollah and its Iranian backers.
Over the past three years, Israel and the US have dealt significant blows to Iran, escalating regional tensions. In July 2024, Israel allegedly assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political chief, in Tehran, intensifying hostilities.
In 2022, Israeli drones struck Iranian drone facilities, disrupting their military advancements. April 2024 saw the killing of three Iranian Revolutionary Guard generals in Syria were attributed to Israel, weakening Iran’s leadership. Israeli missile and drone strikes have consistently hit Iranian targets, degrading their military capabilities.
One plausible explanation for these (smaller yet effective) attacks is that Israel may be trying to provoke Hezbollah and Iran into a reaction, potentially to justify a larger-scale response or gain an upper hand in the ongoing regional conflict.
Hezbollah is deeply embedded in Lebanon’s political and military structures, and undermining their communication capabilities is a clear effort to cripple their operational readiness.
By demonstrating that Hezbollah’s most secure communication networks can be breached, Israel may be hoping to trigger internal chaos, paranoia, and distrust within the group’s ranks.
Provoking a rash response could justify further actions from Israel, allowing it to maintain the upper hand without being the clear aggressor in the eyes of the international community.
Humiliation tactics and demonstrating vulnerability
Another perspective is that these attacks are less about instigation and more about psychological warfare. By striking at the heart of Hezbollah’s communication networks through pagers and walkie-talkies, the message Israel could be sending is clear “no one is safe from its reach”.
Whether through airstrikes or, in this case, cyber sabotage, Israel is showcasing its ability to infiltrate Hezbollah’s most secure systems, thereby humiliating the group and undermining its authority. This can have far-reaching consequences.
For Hezbollah, whose strength relies on its perceived invulnerability, the realisation that its members can be targeted at any moment sends a chilling message.
Part of a bigger plan?
These targeted cyber-attacks may also be start of a broader Israeli strategy to weaken Hezbollah gradually while avoiding large-scale conflict. Israel has historically preferred covert actions, using intelligence and surgical strikes to disrupt Hezbollah’s operations rather than engaging in prolonged conventional warfare.
Israel knows a conventional war with Hezbollah will be costly in terms of money and manpower and it might not be as successful. The destruction of communication devices like pagers and walkie-talkies might be part of a larger blueprint to systematically dismantle Hezbollah’s logistical and operational capabilities and exposing its members more openly.
There is also the possibility that this is part of a wider cyber-war between Israel and Iran, with Hezbollah caught in the middle as Iran’s main regional proxy.
Over the years, both sides have launched attacks against each other’s critical infrastructure. Stuxnet, which crippled Iran’s nuclear programme, and other cyberattacks targeting Israeli water systems and private companies indicate that cyber warfare is becoming the front line of modern conflict.
If Israel is demonstrating its capabilities now, it could be laying the groundwork for further cyber-sabotage targeting more sensitive operations within Hezbollah or even Iran itself.
What’s next?
Moving forward, we can expect several outcomes:
If Hezbollah or Iran views these attacks as more than a one-off, they may feel compelled to retaliate, possibly through asymmetric attacks or cyber operations. However, a direct response could escalate the situation further, which both Hezbollah and Iran might want to avoid in the current geopolitical climate.
Israel may continue with low-profile but devastating operations to undermine Hezbollah, opting for cyber-sabotage to avoid full-scale war. This aligns with Israel’s strategy of weakening Iran’s proxies without direct military confrontation.
Both Hezbollah and Iran are likely to invest more heavily in securing their communications and other critical infrastructure against cyber threats.
The humiliation caused by this breach will prompt a tightening of security and possibly the development of new countermeasures.
As tensions rise, international powers like the U.S., Russia, or the EU may step in to mediate. Both Hezbollah and Israel have significant backers, and this incident could draw more attention to the broader power struggles in the Middle East.
Ultimately, whether this is an attempt to provoke Hezbollah or part of a long-term plan to weaken the group, Israel’s cyber capabilities are making a strong statement “its adversaries can be reached anytime, anywhere”.
The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners
The writer is a British Pakistani, and holds an MBA from the University of Birmingham and doctorate in Computer Science from the University of Sunderland. He is currently the Director of Higher Education at BMet, Birmingham
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