NEW YORK: The euro fell against the dollar on Monday as business activity reports for the euro zone economy disappointed, briefly extending declines after US data showed activity there held steady.
The soft euro zone data supported expectations for more interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank this year, with markets currently pricing in a roughly 77% chance for a cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the central bank’s October meeting.
A survey compiled by S&P Global showed euro zone business activity sharply contracted this month as the bloc’s dominant services industry flat-lined, while a downturn in manufacturing accelerated.
The contractions appeared broad-based, with Germany’s decline deepening, while France returned to contraction following August’s boost from the Olympic Games.
In contrast, US business activity was steady in September, but average prices charged for goods and services rose at the fastest pace in six months, possibly pointing to an acceleration in inflation in coming months.
S&P Global said its flash US Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, was little changed at 54.4 this month compared to a final figure of 54.6 in August, with a reading above 50 signaling expansion.
The dollar index, which tracks its performance against a basket of currencies, including the yen and the euro, rose 0.04% to 100.82 after rising as high as 101.23 on the session. The euro was down 0.28% at $1.1131 and on track for its biggest daily decline since Sept. 9.
“What we’re largely looking at is interest rate expectations, most expect the Fed to lead and to be relatively more aggressive in terms of cutting interest rates, historically that’s been a reasonable interpretation,” said Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in New York.
“Anything that would cause the market to reprice closer to where the Fed is, is likely to provide at least some benefit to the US dollar.” The dollar fell for a third straight week last week, after the Fed cut interest rates by larger than usual 50 basis points.
Several Fed officials spoke on Monday, with Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari calling the cut the “right decision” while Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he expected “many more rate cuts over the next year.” Atlanta Federal Reserve president Raphael Bostic said the Fed is not in a “mad dash” to a neutral rate of interest as policymakers debate how far and fast rates need to come down.
Sterling strengthened 0.17% to $1.3343 after climbing to $1.3356, the highest since March 4, 2022, after a similar survey showed British businesses reported a slowdown in growth this month, though it was less severe than the euro zone numbers.
The Bank of England kept rates unchanged last Thursday, with its governor saying the central bank had to be “careful not to cut too fast or by too much”.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.1% to 143.76 after a holiday in Japan. The US currency touched a two-week high at 144.50 yen last week after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left interest rates unchanged and indicated it was in no hurry to hike them again.
For the yen, a ruling party vote later this week to choose a new prime minister makes the BOJ’s job challenging in the coming months, with frontrunners showing varying views on monetary policy. A snap election is regarded as likely in late October.
Policy announcements are expected from the Swiss National Bank and Riksbank later in the week.
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