Iran’s daring gambit

Far from making Israel’s northern Galilee region inhabitable again – Netanyahu’s rationale for expanding the war into Lebanon – the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and wholesale decapitation of Hezbollah’s high command has only prompted a more direct, more intense counterattack from the Iran-backed militia.

Hezbollah’s drones and rockets have regularly pierced the hyped Iron Dome to wreck Israel’s Merkava tanks on the border, strike the Stella Maris naval base in Haifa, directly hit Bibi’s personal residence in Caesarea in an unprecedented embarrassment for the IDF, and caused a sudden spike in Israel’s dead and wounded in the ugly war.

That’s why Israelis who had packed their bags to go back home instead flooded exit lounges at local airports and why the Israeli government put a temporary ban on all outbound flights.

Down south in Gaza, advertising Yahya Sinwar’s last moments as a fugitive on the run backfired, turning him into a folk hero that fought to the last drop, and inspired fierce retaliation from a badly battered Hamas that inflicted the highest profile on-ground loss in the Israeli military yet.

And, just like that, pundits that took Israel’s successful assassinations in Beirut and Gaza as a prelude to its victory only last week no longer dismiss the hundreds of rockets flying into the Jewish state and reaching as far as Tel Aviv as the last desperate gasp of a dying resistance. Rather, they are stunned that Iran is suddenly moving its pieces across the board and dictating the pace, provoking Israel to overreach.

Yet, despite the spirited retaliation, this week’s biggest surprise did not come from the battlefield. News that Iran and Saudi Arabia are likely to hold naval exercises in the Red Sea must have sent shock waves all the way from Tel Aviv to Washington.

CNN reported just this Wednesday that the Iranian foreign minister’s interactions with Arab counterparts over the last month extended to meetings with Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sabah al Sabah in Kuwait City, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammad bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Doha, Jordan’s King Abdullah II in Amman, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi in Cairo and Saudi crown prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in Riyadh.

Just last year, up until October 7, everybody seemed convinced that the momentum from the Abraham Accords had reached a point where formal Saudi recognition of Israel was finally possible.

But now, over the last two weeks, Riyadh has flatly ruled out any progress till a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital is on the cards, announced that GCC countries will not allow their airspace to be used for attacks on Iran, and hinted at unheard of military drills with its longtime archrival.

Iran knew its answer for the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and Ismail Haniyeh, 180 missiles fired into Israel, would guarantee a very strong Israeli response with the full backing of the United States. Yet such is the radical DNA of the ayatollah regime that it chose to hit back and raise the stakes instead of hunkering down and letting the storm pass as its allies dropped one by one to Israel’s relentless bombardment.

Despite all the setbacks, it has shown the ability to keep the Israeli military stretched on all fronts, and the intelligence capability to locate and successfully hit the home of the Israeli prime minister; which reportedly triggered a fight between Netanyahu’s cabinet ministers and IDF chief Harzi Halevi that made its way to the press.

Iran’s ruling clergy has also made it abundantly clear that Israel’s inevitable counterstrike will invite another round of swift and severe retaliation from Tehran and its proxies, possibly lighting up the entire region, leaving it to the US to decide how much further it will back Netanyahu’s madness as one by one European leaders begin to distance themselves from it.

In this merciless, zero-sum game of Middle East chess where rockets and missiles count for pieces, Iran has refused to buckle under pressure and knock over its king, instead, by snatching the initiative –delivering a drone to Bibi’s personal address, especially – it has given an unexpected discovered check to Israel.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024