The euro hit a two-week low against the yen and fell versus the dollar on Monday, weighed by concerns over Greece's next aid tranche and a trend of weak earnings from European companies. The euro fell 0.4 percent to 102.53 yen, well below a six-month peak of 104.59 yen reached on October 23.
Against the dollar the euro was down 0.3 percent at $1.2894, close to Friday's two-week low of $1.28825 with volumes likely to taper in the coming hours. There was support for the euro at its 200-day moving average of $1.2835 while offers were cited above $1.2910. Analysts expect the closure of stock markets in New York as Hurricane Sandy approaches the US East Coast to weigh on equities, which would be negative for risk sentiment and boost demand for safe-haven currencies such as the dollar and the yen.
Markets also continue to fret over rescue measures for Greece - which faces debt repayments in November - as well as Spain. "Greece has come back onto the radar and along with Spain, it poses a slight negative for the euro," said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at CIBC World Markets. In Athens, international lenders have refused to make more concessions on changes to labour laws contested by a Greek junior coalition partner, prolonging the impasse on a reforms package and weighing on the euro.
Sentiment towards the currency is also unlikely to turn positive unless Spain requests financial aid, traders said, clearing the way for the European Central Bank to buy the country's bonds. "We should see a very slight bias for the euro to drift lower towards the 200-day moving average, it would be a big surprise if it runs higher," said Chris Turner head of FX strategy at ING.
Investors are also firmly fixed on Tuesday's meeting of the Bank of Japan, where details of further monetary easing are expected. With many speculators already running significant short positions against the yen, more losses are viewed as unlikely. The BoJ is expected to expand its asset purchases and may continue to ease policy until 1 percent inflation is achieved.
"Euro crosses were popular last week, we could be seeing an unwinding of positions in those crosses including euro/yen on expectations of easing from the BoJ tomorrow," said Turner. The dollar traded at 79.60 yen, flat on the day and well below Friday's four-month high of 80.38 yen.
Turner said there were likely stop-loss orders below 79.50 and dollar/yen could trade down to 79.20. Data on Friday showed currency speculators had hiked their bets against the yen, with the market posting a net short position for the first time since May. Some said the yen could weaken further no matter what the BoJ does. If the central bank refrains from easing as strongly as the market expects, futures and options data suggests the yen's underlying soft trend will continue.
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