SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars started December on a downbeat note after two straight months of declines, with their fates largely depending on overseas events now that uncertainties over local interest rates have settled.
Adding to the pressure, the onshore Chinese yuan hit a four-month low on Monday and broke a key level of 7.26 per dollar as US President-elect Donald Trump warned BRICS member countries against replacing the dollar or face 100% tariffs.
As a result, the Aussie - which is often sold as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan given China’s status of Australia’s biggest trading partner - fell 0.3% to $0.6499.
It ended November 1% lower, with support at a four-month trough of $0.6434 and resistance heavy at $0.6550.
The kiwi fell 0.5% to $0.5893, after losing 0.9% last month to hit a one-year low of $0.5979. Resistance is at a key chart level of $0.5935.
“AUD/USD will be largely weighed down by a stronger USD this week in our view.
AUD/USD could retest last week’s low of 0.6434,“ said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“USD is likely to track higher this week because of US economic outperformance … The political tumult in France could also support the USD this week.”
Australia, NZ dollars take stock after telling week for rates
A slew of economic indicators including the third quarter gross domestic product data is due this week in Australia but is unlikely to change the market’s view on the central bank’s first rate cut, said Capurso.
Retail sales beat forecasts in October as tax cuts flowed through to wages and the consumer mood brightened, reinforcing wagers that rate cuts are still some months away, most likely in May next year.
Data on inventories proved to be a drag on the economy in the third quarter, although net exports are likely to add to growth and continued expansion in public spending means the economy likely grew at a faster clip of 0.4%, a Reuters poll showed.
Across the Tasman Sea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already chopped rates by 125 basis points to 4.25% and markets imply a slew of cuts in the new year with rates reaching 3.35% late next year.
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