SYDNEY: Share markets got off to a patchy start in Asia on Monday ahead of a week brimming with economic news that should underline the relative outperformance of the United States and support the dollar’s ongoing bull run.
Political uncertainty remained a feature as the Globe and Mail reported embattled Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would announce his resignation as early as Monday.
Markets seemed to have priced it in and might welcome an election to clarify matters, so the U.S. dollar dipped 0.36% on its Canadian cousin to 1.4396 .
The star of the U.S. data line up is the December payrolls report on Friday, where analysts expect a rise of 150,000 with unemployment holding at 4.2%.
These will be previewed by data on ADP hiring, job openings and weekly jobless claims, along with surveys on manufacturing, services and consumer sentiment.
Anything upbeat would support the case for fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and markets have already scaled back expectations to just 40 basis points for 2025.
Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting due Wednesday will offer colour on their dot plot predictions, while there will be plenty of live comment with at least seven top policy makers speaking including influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
Inflation figures from the EU and Germany this week will refine the outlook for more rate cuts from the European Central Bank, while China’s consumer prices on Thursday is expected to support the case for further stimulus there.
With so much event risk ahead, investors were understandably cautious and global indexes were mixed.
Asia shares rise, dollar underpinned by elevated bond yields
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, tab gained 0.6%, having lost 1% last week.
Japan’s Nikkei, returned from holiday to drop 1.1%, pressured in part by a rise in JGB yields to the highest since 2011. South Korean stocks rallied 1.1%, though the fate of President Yoon Suk Yeol seems no clearer.
Chinese blue chips, dipped 0.4%, even as a survey showed services activity expanded at the fastest pace in seven months in December.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures edged up 0.1%, while FTSE futures were flat.
Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down 0.1% in light volumes. Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted the S&P 500 boasted a total return of 25% in 2024, the second year of gains above 20% and the last time that happened was 1998/99.
The rally was narrow, with almost half the rise coming from just five stocks, yet Goldman expects another 11% increase this year driven by a similar rise in earnings. Reports for the latest earnings season start to flow on Jan. 15.
The U.S. bond market has not been so fortunate and 10-year yields inched higher to 4.631%, very close to last week’s eight-month top of 4.641%.
Investor appetite will be sorely tested this week by the sale of $119 billion in new three-, 10- and 3-year Treasuries.
The steady climb in yields kept the dollar index up at 108.950 , having risen almost 0.9% last week to a top of 109.540.
The euro was hanging on at $1.0312 , uncomfortably close to last week’s 26-month trough of $1.0225. It now faces resistance around $1,0340, as trend-following funds continue to hunger for the psychological $1.000 level.
The dollar had broadened its advance last week to sweep over sterling as well, driving it to an eight-month low of $1.2349.
The pound was last looking none too steady at $1.2435 .
The risk of Japanese intervention kept the dollar restrained at 157.60 yen , just short of last month’s high of 158.09.
The strength of the dollar was a hurdle for gold, keeping the metal at $2,641 an ounce .
Oil has found support from colder weather in Europe and the United States, with a winter storm bringing snow, ice and freezing temperatures to a broad swath of the U.S. on Sunday.
Brent rose 24 cents to $76.75 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 27 cents to $74.23 per barrel.
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