MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to decline against the U.S. dollar at the open on Monday, dipping past the 86 level, after a blowout U.S. jobs report increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates anytime soon.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 86.10-86.12, an all-time low, to the U.S. dollar compared with 85.9650 in the previous session.
U.S. employers added 256,000 jobs last month, compared to the 160,000 jobs expected by economists that were polled by Reuters, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.1%.
For speculators “who are already into” bearish bets on the rupee, the U.S. job numbers provide “one more reason to hold onto them”, a currency trader at a bank said.
“Having said that, I think we are now near levels where a number of negatives (for the rupee) are in the price. Plus, we are long overdue a decent correction.”
For the Federal Reserve, the report “should significantly reduce concerns about downside risks in the labour market, bringing the focus back to inflation to determine next moves”, Morgan Stanley said in a note.
The report should reduce the probability of near-term Fed rate cuts, the investment bank said.
Interest rate futures indicate that market participants are expecting the Fed to cut rates only once this year.
Mini relief for Indian rupee not likely to stick; US jobs data awaited
The Fed cut rates thrice from September to December last year.
The dollar index rose to a more than two-year high on Friday, to nearly 110. The 10-year U.S. yield climbed to a 14-month high.
The dollar, apart from U.S. data, is getting a boost from tariffs that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is likely to impose on other countries.
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