NEW YORK: US natural gas futures rose about 1% to a two-year high on Wednesday on forecasts for more frigid weather over the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday weekend than previously expected, which could freeze gas wells and pipes and boost gas demand for heating to a record high.
Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.7 cents, or 0.9%, to $4.005 per million British thermal units at 8:59 a.m. EST (1359 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Jan. 4 2023.
Analysts projected the next three storage reports for the weeks ending Jan. 10, Jan. 17 and Jan. 24 could each show utilities pulling more than 200 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from inventories to meet soaring heating demand. Some analysts said withdrawals this month could top the current record high of 994 bcf set in January 2022, according to federal energy data.
There is about 7% more gas in storage than usual for the time of year. But storage withdrawals this month could remove the surplus by the end of January, which would be the first time stockpiles fall below the five-year average since January 2022.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states fell from 104.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 103.2 billion so far in January due mostly to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known in the energy industry as freeze-offs. That compares with a monthly record 104.5 bcfd in December 2023.
While curtailments were small so far this month, analysts and traders noted freeze-offs could soar in coming days with the coldest weather still to come.
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