Palm oil drops to three-week low, stockpile concerns linger

Malaysian palm oil futures tumbled to their lowest in more than three weeks on Monday, as traders continued to worry over large stockpiles in the world's No 2 producer of the tropical oil. Traders and analysts expected inventories in Malaysia to reach a fresh record high in October on strong production. Weakness in other vegetable oil markets also weighed on palm oil prices.
"The market's dragged down by soybean oil and soybeans, and local sentiment is also not good," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "The question for oilseeds, especially palm oil, is basically Malaysia's end-stocks figures for October. Exports may be good, but end-stocks are not coming down. The question is how much, and we are looking at 2.5 million or 2.6 million tonnes."
The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 3.4 percent to close at 2,411 ringgit ($788) per tonne. Prices earlier fell to an intraday low at 2,381 ringgit, weakest since October 12. Total traded volumes stood at 44,480 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots, as traders rushed to liquidate their positions.
Concerns remained that strong exports of 1.6 million tonnes in October would do little to counter healthy production that may swell stockpiles. Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) releases data on October inventory levels on November 12. "We expect the upcoming MPOB data to be uninspiring, as inventory is poised to increase further, to another record high of 2.65 million tonnes," Alan Lim Seong Chun, a research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, said in a note on Monday.
"However, the high inventory should have already been reflected in the very high discount of crude palm oil against soybean oil, at more than $250 per tonne." The steep discount between palm and soyabean oil could trigger higher purchases from India, the world's biggest vegetable oil importer, and top analyst Dorab Mistry called for the country to impose an import duty of 10 percent on crude palm oil to protect its farmers. In other vegetable oil markets, US soyaoil for December delivery slipped 0.8 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 3 percent lower.