Rains over Brazil's south-eastern coffee belt will intensify by the end of the week, providing a helpful boost to soil moisture levels in the early stages of the crop's development, private weather forecaster Somar said on Tuesday. In the arabica-growing Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo states and robusta-growing Espirito Santo, Somar forecast "quite intense" showers between November 25 and 29. The three states together account for about 85 percent of Brazil's coffee output.
Cumulative rains of more than 100mm (3.9 inches) could fall in that five-day period - about half what usually falls in the entire month of November. "There is a forecast for a cold front that will hover over Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo (states), and as a consequence, we will have five days of overcast weather and constant rain," said meteorologist Celso Oliveira.
Weeks of dry weather had become a concern for producers after trees had flowered, but a pickup in rainfall in the last fortnight has guaranteed an adequate moisture supply for tiny fruit to swell up and form coffee beans. In the first 20 days of November, Espirito Santo state has already received more than the average total rainfall for the month, while other key states received around half the usual amount.
Rains are likely to turn more constant as the tropical south-east of Brazil approaches the humid summer season. The crop now developing should begin harvesting from next May. Next year's crop is likely to be smaller than this year's now-harvested 50.5 million 60kg bags, as estimated by Conab in September.
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