BUDAPEST/WARSAW: The zloty eased on Monday after weaker-than expected February manufacturing growth and a fall in producer prices underpinned that Polish interest rates could stay at record lows this year.
Low rates in Central Europe's flagship economy contrast with an expected further hike in Federal Reserve interest rates, and likely hawkish comments at its March 20-21 meeting.
Rising US rates make assets in Poland and elsewhere in the region relatively less attractive.
In a Reuters poll this month, analysts projected gains for the Czech crown, the forint and the zloty in the next 12 months, fuelled by robust economic growth and expected monetary tightening to fight rebounding inflation.
But since then, most of the region's countries reported a retreat in inflation for February. The Polish central bank also lowered its inflation forecasts two weeks ago.
February annual figures released on Monday showed that annual industrial output growth remained strong, at 7.4 percent, but below analysts' median forecast of 8.1 percent, while the producer price index fell 0.2 percent.
The zloty touched a new 3-month low against the
euro, and at 0926 GMT it traded at 4.22, down 0.13 percent, easing more then other regional currencies.
Any impact on the zloty from the figures could be limited as they did not change monetary policy prospects, said Andrzej Kaminski, economist at Millennium Bank.
"In our view, due to rising labor costs, the MPC (Monetary Policy Council) will raise the cost of money in the second half of 2019, as wages and inflation will be growing faster than assumed in the (central bank's) projection," he said.
The crown eased only a shade, to 25.4230, still off last week's two-month lows of 25.5.
Czech inflation also retreated in February, but Czech central bank governor Jiri Rusnok has said there was still room to raise interest rates further.
On Sunday he said a hike could come late this year or in early 2019, or earlier if inflation becomes brisker.
The region's central banks diverge in monetary policy. Serbia's central bank cut rates last week to stem a firming of the dinar.
The currency bucked the regional trend on Monday, gaining a quarter of a percent to 118.11 versus the euro, after Serbia confirmed its interest in a new deal with the International Monetary Fund on Friday.
Stocks mostly eased in the region, led by Budapest, knocked lower by a retreat of OTP Bank from a one-month high after Romania's central bank torpedoed OTP's takeover of Banca Romaneasca.
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