Soyabean prices could be boosted well into April by transport problems in key exporter Brazil but could then be weakened by possible record soyabean plantings in the United States, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. "Soyabean prices may remain firm in March and perhaps the first half of April," Oil World said. "By that time exports from South America should be in full swing and the USDA (US Department of Agriculture) planting intentions report may have confirmed the outlook for a record soyabean acreage this spring, paving the way for a price setback."
Global soyabean consumers are urgently awaiting Brazilian and Argentine soya harvests in early 2013 to relieve the tight global soyabean market, where the US is carrying the main burden of meeting world export demand despite a drought-hit 2012 crop. Loading delays of up to 60 days are reported at Brazilian ports as the country struggles to export huge new soyabean and corn crops. This has returned soyabean demand to the United States despite tight US supplies which may compel US soyabean imports in coming months.
"Manifold logistical problems kept Brazilian soyabean exports below the world market's requirements in February and this will probably also occur in the first half of March," Oil World said. Soyabean price weakness had been expected early in 2013 as South American harvests enter the global market and price firmness created by Brazilian transport bottlenecks could encourage more US soya sowings, Oil World said.
"The severe depletion of US stocks and the recent price development is signalling US farmers to step up soyabean plantings," Oil World said. US end-of-season soyabean stocks are forecast to fall to their lowest in nine years while the stocks-to-consumption ratio was projected at the tightest since the mid-1960s, according to USDA data. The USDA will estimate spring plantings of US corn, soyabeans, wheat and other crops on March 28 and Oil World is expecting a hefty expansion of US soyabean sowings. This would compare to 76.1 acres harvested in the United States in 2012. Oil World stressed the estimate is very tentative with weather and price developments in coming weeks key factors to watch.
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