THE RUPEE: bulls dominate

The rupee, somehow managed to hold in command over the US currency on the back of slight improvement in supply of the greenback during the week ended on April 13. On the interbank market, the rupee picked up 17 paisa in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at 98.26 and 98.28.
On the open market, the national currency, gained 10 paisa versus the dollar for buying at 98.90 and it rose by 25 paisa for selling at 99.00. The rupee, however, lost Rs 1.75 in terms of the euro for buying and selling at Rs 129.00 and Rs 129.25.
Some money experts attributed the gain to comfortable supply of dollars, which helped the domestic currency to go up. Weak and persistent economic scenario is in fact not allowing the businesses to lift from bottom.
Though, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned central banks to keep an eye on inflation and resist political pressure to focus policy only on lowering unemployment. Besides, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), European Union (EU) economies have shed almost six million jobs since the global economies crisis stuck in 2008.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves dropped to 11.758 billion dollars in the week ending April 5 from 12.202 billion dollars in the previous week. Remittances from Pakistanis abroad rose 6.35 percent to 10.35 dollars billion in the first nine months of the 2012/13 fiscal year, from 9.73 billion dollars in the same period last year.
As was expected, its key policy rate unchanged at 9.5 percent, experts said. Commenting on the latest move by China and Australia, money experts said the negative or positive impact will come up after some time, it is pre-time to say something about this.
INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: On Monday, the rupee was down by 11 paisa in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at 98.43 and 98.45. On Tuesday, the rupee inched up in the dollar also, gaining three-paisa for buying and selling at 98.40 and 98.42. On Wednesday, the rupee picked up five paisa for buying and selling at 98.35 and 98.37. On Thursday, the rupee picked up 10 paisa against the dollar for buying at Rs 98.25 and the greenback gained nine paisa for selling at Rs 98.28. On Friday, the rupee shed one paisa against the dollar for buying at 98.26 while, it, showed no variation for selling at 98.28.
OPEN MARKET RATES: On April 8, the rupee was unmoved versus the dollar for buying and selling at 99.00 and 99.25, they added. While, the rupee gained versus the euro, picking up 65 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 127.25 and Rs 127.50, they said.
On April 9, the rupee posted fresh gain of 30 paisa in relation to the dollar for buying at 98.70 and the national currency followed suit, rising 40 paisa for selling at 98.85. The rupee, however, dropped versus the euro, dropping 75 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 128.00 and Rs 128.25.
On April 10, the rupee followed suit in terms of the dollar, rising five paisa for buying at 98.65 while the national currency was unchanged for selling at 98.85. The rupee, however, fell versus the euro, dropping 20 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 128.20 and Rs 128.45.
On April 11, the rupee, however, could not sustain its firmness against the dollar, losing five paisa for buying and selling at Rs 98.70 and Rs 98.90. The rupee dropped by 50 paisa in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 128.70 and Rs 128.95.
On April 12, the rupee drifted lower against the dollar, falling five paisa for buying and selling at 98.75 and 98.95. The rupee, however, gained 20 paisa in terms of the single European currency for buying and selling at Rs 128.50 and Rs 128.75. On April 13, the rupee lost 15 paisa versus the dollar for buying at 98.90 and it also shed five paisa for selling at 99.00. The rupee followed suit, losing 50 paisa in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 129.00 and Rs 129.25.
OVERSEAS OUTLOOK FOR DOLLAR: In the first Asian trade, the yen hit fresh lows against a host of major currencies, resuming its slide on reports the Bank of Japan would immediately begin buying longer-dated bonds to underline its determination to beat deflation.
The US dollar was at 98.33, having jumped more than a full yen to 98.85 in early Asian trade, the highest since June 2009, as stop-loss selling amid thin market conditions exaggerated the yen's slide.
The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 54.64, the US currency was at 3.0580 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the greenback was at 6.204 in relation to the Chinese yuan. Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Monday: 78.08-78.0810 (78.08-78.08). Call Money Rates: 06.50-07.25 percent (previous 06.00-07.50 percent). IMF chief Christine Lagarde on Sunday told an audience in China that the euro has a solid future and that she hopes no more countries in Europe will need bailouts.
"I think the collective political will.... to maintain, defend, protect and enhance the monetary zone and currency zone has been largely underestimated," Lagarde said.
"The euro has a future and has a long-standing one."
The former French finance minister spoke during a question-and-answer session that followed an address she gave at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual conference of political and economic leaders held on the Chinese island of Hainan.
In the second Asian trade, the yen pushed deeper into multi-year lows against the dollar and euro on Tuesday as the market saw every reason to sell the currency with the Japanese central bank on a warpath to battle deflation. The dollar rose to as high as 99.67 yen on trading platform EBS, the greenback's strongest level versus the yen since May 2009. The dollar later pulled back on profit-taking and last stood at 99.23 yen, down 0.2 percent on the day.
The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 54.52, the greenback was at 3.0380 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was available versus the Chinese yuan at 6.202.
Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Tuesday: 78.05-78.08 (78.08-78.0810). Call Money Rates: 06.75-07.25 percent (previous 06.00-07.50 percent.
In the third Asian trade, the yen bobbed around a nearly four-year low against the dollar on Wednesday, but the momentum created by the Bank of Japan's ambitious monetary expansion campaign was not quite enough to push it over the 100-yen level yet.
The Aussie pared gains after chalking up a 2-1/2 month high of $1.0518 on news Chinese imports surged 14.1 percent on the year, well beyond market expectations, overtaking exports to create a mild trade deficit. It was last up 0.1 percent at $1.0496. The dollar was steady at 99.09 on trading platform EBS, after rising as high as 99.67 yen on Tuesday, its strongest level since May 2009. The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 54.53, the greenback was available at 3.0335 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 6.193 versus the Chinese yuan. Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Wednesday: 78.05-78.0550 (78.05-78.08). Call Money Rates: 06.50-07.25 percent (previous 05.25-07.50 percent).
In the fourth Asian trade, the dollar hovered near a four-year high against the yen after the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's March meeting raised expectations it will scale back its bond-buying spree by the end of the year. Such a possibility contrasts with the stance of the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who signalled his readiness on Wednesday to offer further stimulus or maintain an ultra-easy policy beyond two years if meeting the bank's two-percent inflation target proves difficult.
The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 54.52, the greenback was available in terms of the Malaysian ringgit at 3.0330 and the US currency was at 6.1966 against the Chinese yuan.
Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Thursday: 78.02-78.02 (78.05-78.0550). Call Money Rates: 06.75-07.50 percent (previous 05.75-07.50 percent).
In the final Asian trade, the dollar edged lower versus the yen but stayed within striking distance of 100 yen, with the Bank of Japan's radical monetary stimulus seen likely to keep the yen under pressure. The greenback has gained roughly seven percent from about 92.90 yen since the BOJ pledged last week to inject about $1.4 trillion into the Japanese economy in less than two years to achieve its target of 2 percent inflation.
The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 54.51 versus the Malaysian ringgit, the greenback was at 3.0350 and the greenback was at 6.191 against the Chinese yuan. At the week-end, the dollar fell from a four-year peak against the yen after dismal data on US retail sales in March reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will continue buying bonds to support the economic recovery. The yen's bounce, however, should prove to be temporary given the BoJ's aggressive monetary easing to fight decades-long deflation. Most market experts contend it's only a matter of time before the dollar rises above the 100-yen mark, a key psychological and technical level.