Casting their votes in unprecedented numbers in the face of a clear and present threat of violence, the people have demonstrated unstinted enthusiasm for democracy. They have delivered a clear mandate to a single party, proving pundits wrong who opined that this is the age of coalition governments. The people have done their bit; it is now the newly-elected PML-N leadership's turn to deliver.
An urgent things-to-do list awaiting Nawaz Sharif on the prime ministerial desk is pretty straightforward though rather daunting. The straightforward but onerous task would be to negotiate a bailout package with the IMF; tackle a huge fiscal deficit without causing further pain to the common man; present annual budget which is not only business-friendly but people-friendly as well; and resolve the energy crisis on an urgent basis. In his victory speech, Mian Sahib averred that he would keep all promises he had been making during the election campaign, which included provision of micro credit to jobless youth. The energy shortage alone has caused an estimated 6 percent loss in GDP growth rate and extensive unemployment. An imaginative scheme to retire the circular debt and provision of micro credit should give a badly needed boost to economic activity.
The daunting part would be to hold good on promises to break the begging bowl. Everyone knows the first and foremost step in that direction is to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio, and that the privileged classes do pay their dues to the state. A while ago even Hillary Clinton, as US Secretary of State, had openly chided our rulers, saying Pakistan should first tax its own rich before asking for US tax payers' money. A shameless disregard for this obligation remains persistent. Urban rich, whether making money in the industrial or retail sector, real estate or stocks trading, either cheat on taxes or enjoy exemptions. Every now and then they are also granted immunities to whiten black money through various amnesty schemes. The landed 'gentry' dominating political parties and the assemblies pay zero tax on agricultural incomes. Many of them having branched out into the industrial sector use agricultural income cover to evade tax on this source of earnings as well. The big challenge before the Prime Minister-elect is to bell these fat cats. Is he up to it? The answer seems to be no. Let him prove sceptics wrong.
Numerous difficult issues involving violent extremists and insurgents have unsettled State and society. As regards the Taliban, both Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan - who is to act as the unofficial leader of parliamentary opposition - are on the same page. They want to give talks a chance. It is good to see the political leadership take ownership of the policy towards violent extremists. That should help bring the problem to its logical end, whether through talks, use of force, or a combination of both options. In the insurgency ridden Balochistan, the PML-N has won the second highest number of seats, after PkMAP. It is followed by the Baloch nationalist parties, the NP and BNP-M in the third and fourth place, respectively. This is a decent grouping for the Nawaz League to work with and form an alliance government to address all the issues fuelling insurgency in that troubled province.
No less challenging is the menace of sectarian terrorism. The PML-N has repeatedly been accused of being soft on sectarian outfits in Punjab. The problem requires a joint and resolute response from all parties at the home front. The federal government has the added responsibility to cut off these organisations' connection to the Gulf states whose proxy war is being fought in this country. Nawaz Sharif must use his power of persuasion with those counties to stop the money supply to violent extremists playing havoc with Pakistani lives.
The Prime Minister-elect has iterated his intention to pick up the peace process with India from where his previous government left off in 1999. His policy of resolving issues of conflict, including Kashmir, with that difficult neighbour through talks has the support of all major political parties, including the PPP and the PTI. It will take time, but both sides have self-interest in settling disputes and forging economic co-operation. The other problematic relationship with Washington seems to be improving as the 2014 US troops withdrawal date nears. His uncompromising stance on civil-military relations notwithstanding, Mian Sahib is likely to go along with the military leadership's thinking on the Afghan endgame. But he has to deliver on his campaign promise to halt drone strikes. That should not be as difficult as it is being made out to be. Once Washington knows Islamabad is serious about seeking an end to its drone war on this land, it is expected to change policy.
The big test of Nawaz Sharif's leadership quality is the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. There are no two opinions that Pakistan badly needs Iranian gas to meet its burgeoning energy demand. The US is deadly opposed to it, which is why the Zardari government sat on it until the last moment. And then there are America's local friends creating the scare that if we go ahead with it, Washington will apply economic pressure to punish us. The counter-argument is that since the US needs Pakistan to wrap up its Afghan campaign, it would refrain from causing too much trouble for this country. Also, the region having become a hotbed of big powers' rivalries, the other camp may be willing to lend us a helping hand in the event of US acting in a punitive mode.
It was a clever move on the part of the PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari, say admirers of his peculiar brand of politics, to win public applause for his party and put the successor government in a fix when he signed the final gas pipeline agreement toward the tail end of the PPP government's tenure. Yet it can work to the new government's advantage, provided it sincerely wants to go ahead with the project. The pipeline's opponents can be told that reneging on the agreement would put a question mark on the new government's credibility. But what if the US uses its trusted regional ally, Saudi Arabia, to whom Sharif is beholden for reasons well-known, to have him dump the project? Will he or won't he do that? The answer to this question will show in due time where his real priorities lie.
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