Dry weather has slashed forecasts for leading global producer Brazil's coffee crop in 2014/15 by more than 10 percent, with a median result of 48.9 million (60-kg) bags, a snap Reuters poll of 20 analysts, traders and producers showed on Friday. Arabica coffee prices have soared some 75 percent so far this year, boosted by diminished Brazilian crop prospects, which could result in the first global deficit in 2014/15 in five years.
The poll had a wide range of 39.0 to 56.0 million bags due to the unprecedented dryness in January and February, but the median forecast was 11 percent below the result of a similar poll issued in late January. "Droughts in Brazil tend to occur in October/November when the rains don't return on time. We've never had a situation where we've had such a prolonged drought during the height of the rainy season in January/February," a European analyst said.
Drought over Brazil's coffee belt has damaged as much as 45 percent of the arabica beans that will be harvested starting in May in the worst-hit area of the nation's main growing state, a study by the local government of Minas Gerais state showed. March is the last month of the rainy season and although irreversible damage is already done, wet weather could help limit losses and aid prospects for the 2015/16 crop also.
Comments
Comments are closed.