US 10-year yields post largest one-day drop since Brexit

NEW YORK: US benchmark 10-year Treasury yields posted their largest one-day drop on Tuesday since Britain voted to exit the European Union nearly two years ago, as a political crisis in Italy, the third-largest euro zone economy, fueled a flight to safe-haven assets.

The steep rally in Treasury prices on Tuesday could be a blip in what has been a relentless sell-off since early September. Interest rates have been supported by the Federal Reserve's tightening policy with 10-year Treasury yields rising to a high of 3.12 percent earlier this month.

US two-year yields, which move inversely to prices, also showed steep declines, with their largest one-day drop in more than nine years.

Both the US two-year and 10-year yields dropped to seven-week lows and slid for four straight sessions.

US 30-year bond yields, on the other hand, sank to a nearly four-month low.

The fall in yields came after Italy's president appointed a former International Monetary Fund official as interim prime minister, who has to plan for fresh elections and pass a budget.

Investors believe the election will further underpin a mandate for anti-establishment, euro-skeptic politicians, stoking worries about Italy's future in the euro zone.

The extent of the rally in US Treasuries reflects investors' perception of Italy's political problems, said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income in Newark, New Jersey.

"This situation with Italy is serious and will take some time and there are a wide range of possible outcomes. Treasuries are one of the few safe places to go to," Tipp said. "It depends on how bad things get in Italy. You can't rule out 2.50 percent on the (US) 10-year yield."

Analysts believed though that the Italian situation is contained for now. The spreads of other peripheral government bond yields over German Bunds have increased, but not by a substantial level.

"This suggests that investors are for now fairly confident that the euro-zone as a whole will be able to withstand the current political uncertainty in Italy," said Stephen Brown, European economist at Capital Economics in London.

In afternoon trading, US 10-year yields dropped to seven-week lows of 2.759 percent and were last at 2.788 percent. Yields fell 14.6 basis points, the largest decline since June 24, 2016.

US 10-year Treasury futures were on track to record their highest single-day volume ever, according to a CME Group spokeswoman said. As of late Tuesday, a combined 8.58 million 10-year T-note futures changed hands with roughly 5.31 million contracts for June delivery transacted TYM8, according to CME data.

US 30-year yields fell to 2.954 percent, the lowest level since Feb. 1 and last traded at 2.975 percent. Thirty-year yields slid nearly 12 basis points, the largest daily fall since June 2016.

On the short-end of the curve, US 2-year yields tumbled to seven-week troughs of 2.311 percent. They last changed hands at 2.331 percent, falling nearly 15 basis points, the most since March 2009.

A rush to safe havens briefly pushed Germany's 10-year bond yield to 0.19 percent, its lowest in more than a year.

Investors, however, sold Italian bonds, as short-term yields were on track for their biggest one-day jump since 1992 .

Tradeweb Markets LLC reported on Tuesday that average trading volume in Italian debt rose more than 60 percent in May compared with both the previous month and a year earlier, as market volatility rose around political news in Italy.