Brazil's National Coffee Council said on Friday that the climate outlook is "unfavourable" for the country's 2015 coffee crop, citing forecasts that see little chance of rain in the country's main growing regions for most of the next two weeks.
Coffee trees that have suffered from drought in 2014 could still yield a normal crop in 2015, the council said in a statement, but they would need rain in the next few days. Such rain is unlikely before October 23, according to weather forecasting firm Somar, whose outlook was cited by the council.
Southern Minas Gerais state, one of the region's most affected by drought in the first quarter of this year, is forecast to get 11 millimetres (0.4 inches) of rain on October 23 and 10 millimeters on October 27, according to Somar. The council confirmed that some flowering occurred in coffee producing regions in September and October but that it was not yet possible to confirm the extent of flowering or whether any of the flowers would bear fruit without sustained rain.
"We believe the drought should damage the next harvest but it is still too early to define the extent because that is completely dependent on the rains," the council, which represents producers, said in a statement. CNC President Silas Brasileiro has previously said the 2015 crop may dip below 40 million bags, which would make it the country's smallest since 2009. Far forward coffee futures jumped to a premium over cash this week, marking a big shift in the long-term price structure of the volatile $13.7 billion futures market as concerns about Brazil's crop next year deepen.
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