The Australian and New Zealand dollars struggled to make headway on Friday after attempts to keep above key levels proved difficult and prompted investors to book profits. The Australian dollar eased to $0.7263, from $0.7289 early, pulling away from a peak and a major retracement level of $0.7335 touched on Thursday. It rallied more than 1 percent in the last session following a stunning domestic job report. Support was found at $0.7235.
"Outperformer AUD consolidated its post-jobs report surge," said Sean Callow, a senior strategist at Westpac Bank, seeing the Aussie holding above $0.7240. It was on track to show a loss of 1 percent this week, partly due to continued euro strength. The common currency soared last week after the European Central Bank disappointed bears with a much tamer-than-expected monetary easing package. The euro has gained 1.6 percent against the Aussie so far this week, having leapt 7 cents since early December.
Market focus is on China, which is due to release a slew of economic data on Saturday. China is Australia's top export market. The New Zealand dollar eased to $0.6738, but was still holding strong after the central bank cut rates by 25 bps to 2.50 percent Thursday but indicated it was ready to pause. "In signalling that its central scenario is for stability, it freed up the NZD to move higher with the strengthening domestic economy," said ANZ Bank.
New Zealand government bonds fell, pushing yields 5 basis points higher at the short end and 4.5 basis points higher at the long end. BNZ FX Strategist Kymberly Martin said the 2-year swap is close to "fair value" based on her view the RBNZ will keep the cash rate unchanged throughout 2016, before considering a rate hiking cycle from mid-2017. However, she expects the market to price further cuts in the first half of next year, which should keep 2-year swap in a 2.50 percent to 2.90 percent range. "Currently the market prices around a further 10bps of RBNZ rate cuts for the year ahead. This is a fair reflection of risks," she said. Australian government bond futures had a soft tone, with the three-year bond contract off 1 tick at 97.800. The 10-year contract eased 3.25 ticks to 97.0850, while the 20-year contract fell 3 ticks to 96.5725.
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