Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, could harvest between 47 million and 49 million 60-kg bags next year, around 15 percent more than this year, if the weather remains favourable in coming months, Silas Brasileiro, head of Brazil's National Coffee Council (CNC), told Reuters on Monday. "If it were not for the dryness in Espirito Santo, we could have an even bigger crop," said Brasileiro in an interview, referring to a harsh drought that will likely hit output from the mainly robusta-producing state.
"Minas Gerais is making up for that loss," he said, citing favourable weather in the state which is responsible for around 50 percent of Brazil's production. CNC's president said Brazil's arabica coffee crop should reach up to 37 million bags next year, versus 31.3 million projected by the government for this year, while robusta output could grow slightly to 11 million bags against 10.9 million seen in 2015, when drought also struck Espirito Santo.
If his views are confirmed, Brazil's coffee output would grow for the first time after three years of falling output, caused mainly by below-average rains. "We saw a nice first flowering (for the 2016 crop). It was really good," Brasileiro said, adding that favourable follow-up rains gave necessary moisture to initial development of the fruits. Brasileiro told Reuters that industry estimates that Brazil's crop could top 60 million bags next year were too optimistic, adding that the problems in Espirito Santo state and the general state of the fields would not allow for such yields.
"This (60 million bags) is totally unlikely. There is no possibility of coffee trees showing such a recovery after two successive years of bad weather," he said. The head of Singapore-based trade house Olam International, Vivek Verma, said last month the Brazilian crop could reach 60-62 million bags. Rabobank said it could grow to 58 million bags.
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