African currencies week ahead: Ghana's cedi enters Q2 on firmer footing

Following are the weekly outlooks for leading frontier African currencies.
GHANA: Ghana's cedi is expected to remain firm next week as local mines have resumed interbank dollar sales, boosted by offshore offers, analysts said.
For the first time in several years, the local unit has withstood seasonal first quarter pressure and recovered almost all its year-to-date losses against the greenback. It was trading at 3.8350 to the dollar by 1130 GMT on Thursday, compared to 3.8400 last week, down just 1 percent since January. "The cedi is expected to hold firm on the back of an impressive first quarter performance, which would encourage traders and corporate bodies not to speculate on the currency," said Biggles Amponsah of Accra-based Dortis Research.
Bank of Ghana governor Henry Kofi Wampah told Reuters on Tuesday he was taking early retirement at the end of March, four months ahead of schedule.
KENYA: The Kenyan shilling is expected to strengthen next week, mainly due to banks converting their dollars to meet required local currency liquidity positions. The shilling was trading at 101.30/40 per dollar on Thursday from 101.45/65 last week.
"It is still rallying," said a senior currency trader at a commercial bank, adding banks were required by the regulator to hold a certain ratio of funds in the local currency at the end of the month.
UGANDA: The Ugandan shilling is forecast to trade in a stable range over the next week, helped by a mop-up of excess liquidity and limited demand from companies. At 1157 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,370/3,380, weaker than last Thursday's close of 3,367/3,377.
"Some support will come from the mop-up operation by the central bank although we'll likely see a stable range," said a trader from a leading commercial Bank. The trader said appetite for hard currency from importers was modest and that the shilling would play in 3,355-3,385 range.
On Thursday, the Bank of Uganda removed 192 billion shillings ($57 million) from the interbank market.
TANZANIA: The Tanzanian shilling is expected to remain steady, helped by a slowdown in demand for dollars from the oil sector. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,182/2,192 to the dollar on Thursday, unmoved from a week ago. "We do not expect any movement next week. The market has been very quiet and the shilling has basically been trading at the same levels over the past month," said William Francis, a dealer at Commercial Bank of Africa Tanzania.
ZAMBIA: The kwacha is expected to remain strong versus the dollar next week due to low appetite for hard currency among importers. Commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa's second-biggest copper producer at 11.030 per dollar, firmer than 11.300 a week ago.
"This bullish trend could continue into next week. In due course sizeable demand for dollars is expected to come from oil marketing companies," one commercial bank trader said.
NIGERIA: Nigeria's naira is seen stable around the prevailing exchange rate at both the official window and parallel markets amid a lull in transactions on both markets due to resistance to devaluation by the government. The local currency was quoted at 320 to the dollar on the black market, the same as last week, and 197 on the official interbank market.