Monsoon season-2016: 20 percent above normal rainfalls forecast across country

Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) has predicted likelihood of 10-20 percent above normal rainfalls across the country during up-coming monsoon. According to PMD, more than average rainfall is expected in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Sindh, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K) and Balochistan.
PMD officials informed the participants of Pre-Monsoon 2016 Preparedness Conference arranged by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) here on Thursday. The conference aimed at reviewing all preparatory efforts put in place at federal/provincial level for Monsoon season-2016 and to harmonise all national and provincial plans to cope with the flooding, rescue, relief and post flood rehabilitation.
The conference was informed that some extreme rainfall events are likely to occur in catchment areas of major rivers which may cause floods and there is also a high probability of heavy downpour which may generate flash flooding along Suleman Range.
Some heavy downpour events are likely to cause urban flooding in big cities. Some strong incursions of monsoon currents, coupled with high temperature, may trigger Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), landslides and flash floods in upper KP and GB. Federal Flood Commission (FFC) presented province wise vulnerable points needing special attention, policy for Dam Management, NHA shared progress on preparatory efforts undertaken for various National Highways with focus on KKH, Gilgit-Skardu Road, Dir-Chitral Road, Rawalpindi-Murree-Muzaffarabad Road, Manshera-Naran Road. Pakistan Army Engineers Directorate informed participants about Army's preparedness measures in support of civil administration. UNOCHA shared resource capacities of UN agencies across Pakistan co-ordination mechanism.
Conference was chaired by Chairman NDMA Major General Asghar Nawaz and attended by senior officials of various federal ministries including Communication, Water & Power and Railways. Officials from WAPDA, Provincial Irrigation Departments, DGs of PDMAs /SDMA/GBDMA/FDMA&IRSA, representatives of armed forces, CDA, NESPAK, SUPARCO, Pakistan Red Crescent, UN agencies, Pakistan Boys Scouts Association, Pakistan Girls Guide Association and all other relevant Provincial & Federal Departments also attended the conference.
The NDMA presented the salient features of National Monsoon Contingency Response Directive-2016 and realistically identified the limitations of existing response mechanism within which all stakeholders have to operate. Weaknesses based on past experiences were also highlighted for improvement. Four contingency scenarios have been visualised by the NDMA based on the Pre-Monsoon forecast issued by the PMD which include "moderately above normal monsoon" (most likely), "intense monsoon (probable)", "erratic monsoon (less probable)", abnormal erratic monsoon (most dangerous).
Participants were asked that national/provincial response for flood fighting / rescue / relief will be configured against "most likely scenario ie "moderately above normal monsoon" while all concerned must take safeguard against other three scenarios as well.
It was highlighted that monsoon season presents threat of Riverine floods, flash floods, urban flooding and glacier lake floods. The responsibility matrix was also presented which defined the role of each department, ie FFC/Provincial. Irrigation Department being primarily responsible for Riverine/Flash Flood management while Municipal corporations/ city development authorities / district governments are responsible for Urban Flood Management. NDMA/PDMA and all other Line Departments / Organisations are responsible for flood fighting, rescue, relief, reconstruction & rehabilitation operations within respective domain. Armed forces are to be called for emergency response in aid of Civil Administration as per Contingency Plans.
The NDMA Response Directive outlines major response guidelines which include community early warning through SMS alerts in districts likely to be affected by floods, co-ordination of relief stocks held with all PDMAs/DDMAs, resource mapping, completion of flood protection works before June, 30 2016, availability of bailey bridges for critical sections by NHA, placement of earth moving machinery in KP, AJK & GB at isolated zones by respective highway departments, timely evacuations at encroached settlements in river plains, enhancement of Early Warning System for communities in flash flood prone areas and maintenance of flood rescue equipment.