Most emerging Asian currencies eased on Tuesday as solid US manufacturing activity backed expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year-end, lifting the dollar and US Treasury yields. The Singapore dollar hit its weakest in more than two weeks as traders grew warier ahead of the central bank's bi-annual policy decision next week. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has yet to announce the date of the meeting.
South Korea's won dipped on disappointing exports data and as traders remained on guard against possible intervention by authorities to stem further gains in the best performing emerging Asian currency this year. In the United States, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey showed on the nation's manufacturing sector returned to expansion in September.
The upbeat result pushed up the odds of a US interest rate hike before year-end. Traders are now pricing a 62 percent chance of a hike in December, and an 11 percent chance of a rate increase in November, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. "The better-than-expected US data supported USD and UST yields, reminding markets that even November remains a live meeting," said Christopher Wong, a senior FX strategist for Maybank in Singapore.
"We expect more USD upside against JPY and SGD, while commodity linked Asia FX such as MYR may not weaken as much due to higher oil prices." The Malaysian ringgit bucked depreciation among regional peers as overnight gains in crude prices eased concerns over the country's oil and gas revenues. Singapore's dollar ticked down 0.3 percent to 1.3687 versus the US dollar, its weakest since September 16.
"The risk is that the MAS re-centres," said Sean Yokota, head of Asia strategy at Scandinavian bank SEB in Singapore, adding that markets are pricing in the risk of an easing. "However, I don't think the MAS will ease and SGD will strengthen post the MAS meeting." The central bank manages policy by letting the Singapore dollar rise or fall against the currencies of its main trading partners within an undisclosed policy band based on its nominal effective exchange rate. The city-state's currency came under further pressure from the yen's slide. Traders and analysts believe the Japanese currency to be a part of the undisclosed currency basket used by the MAS to manage monetary policy.
The Singapore dollar is seen having chart support at 1.3710, a 200-day moving average, analysts said. The currency has been stronger than the average since early March. The won was hit by a stronger dollar and weak exports. South Korea's exports in September fell more than expected, data showed on Saturday. Local financial markets were closed on Monday for a holiday. The South Korean currency pared some of its earlier losses as exporters continued to buy it on dips for settlements.
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