Gold inched higher on Tuesday as the dollar dropped and investors remained cautious ahead of the outcome of the US presidential election. The metal had fallen nearly 2 percent in the previous session after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said no criminal charges were warranted against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for using a private email server.
At the end of a bruising election campaign, the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation poll gave Clinton a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump and said she was on track to win 303 Electoral College votes out of the 270 needed, to Trump's 235. "If there is any consistency between how the gold market is trading and what polls are saying, the gold market is leaning towards Clinton winning, which means that a downward move will likely be less significant than an upward move in the case of a Trump victory," Danske Bank senior analyst Jens Pedersen said.
Spot gold was up just 0.1 percent at $1,282.93 an ounce by 1508 GMT. The metal posted the biggest daily loss in a month on Monday. US gold futures were up $3.10 at $1,282.80 an ounce. A win by Trump, a businessman who has never held public office, would create more uncertainty in the market and that could raise gold's appeal as a hedge against risk, analysts said.
"The problem with a Trump victory is that nobody knows what his policies will be and there will be a limbo between now and when he is inaugurated, which would be bad for the equity markets and bullish for gold," Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said. Markets also continued to be wary of the implications of the US election outcome on an anticipated interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month. Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, while also boosting the dollar, in which the metal is priced.
The double uncertainty over the election and the possible US interest rate hike have boosted demand for gold and silver in the United States, dealers said. In other news, falling consumer demand and a halving of central bank purchases resulted in a 10 percent drop in gold buying in the third quarter, data from the World Gold Council showed. Silver rose 0.8 percent to $18.37 an ounce. Platinum was up 0.5 percent at $1,008.60 an ounce, after hitting $1,009.40, its highest since October 3, earlier in the session. Palladium rose 0.8 percent to $658.25 an ounce.
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