President Mamnoon Hussain has said that the world was confronted by new challenges while old security threats were changing to adapt to new technologies. He was speaking at a seminar entitled "Stability and the Economics of Regional Peace in South Asia," which was jointly organized as part of IDEAS 2016 by the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad and Defence Export Promotion Organisation the other day.
He said that South Asia has shown a tremendous resilience and is emerging as one of the fastest growing regions and economic market. Nevertheless, at the bilateral level in South Asia, the inherited legacy of conflict and unresolved disputes persists, constraining each state's ability to promote economic and social development of its people.
The twin phenomena of strategic peril and economic promise pose a daunting challenge, which must be met by South Asia in sync with the great global transformation of our times. A peaceful and stable South Asia will generate dividends for the people of the region and bring economic and trade benefits to the global economy.
The seminar was a part of biannual defense exhibition IDEAS-2016. Eminent scholars deliberated on the seminar theme which was divided into five sessions that sought expert opinion, recommendations and future directions.
The Chairman ISSI Ambassador Khalid Mahmood (retd) in his remarks introduced the seminar and spoke about how the security scenario around the globe is undergoing a major transformation, with a number of variable and invariable factors, each with its own complexity.
He stated that since achieving independence the countries of South Asia have not been able to forge a co-operative framework that can match the European Union or ASEAN.
The Ambassador recalled how South Asia witnessed the gains of peace, with a paradigm shift during 2003-2008 in Pak-India relations and stated that peace between the two countries is the only way forward. In the growing context of regional and global connectivity, in which the states have started creating frameworks and platforms for enhanced economic cooperation, the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a bright light since it presents immense opportunities for promoting the economics of peace in South Asia and beyond.
Major General Agha Masood Akram, Director General DEPO in his welcome remarks emphasised that it is necessary to look into the concept in the backdrop of changed and changing international and regional dynamics.
A new international order seems to be emerging defined overwhelmingly by geo-economics rather than geopolitics.
The Director General asserted that setting up of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the creation of a new Silk Road, linking Beijing to its immediate neighbours, will not only dramatically increase regional productivity and trade, it is expected to stand as an enduring, very tangible expression of China's material centrality in Asia and beyond.
He added that nation-states are coming to realise that war is no longer a viable option for remaining in control. Seeing this, competitive nations are shifting their resources towards science, education, production and trade. Urgently readjust our position regionally and internationally to face the realities of this geo-economics-led new order. Therefore, as a first step towards achieving this goal, Pakistan should be shifting its resources from geo-strategic matters to geo-economic subjects like science, education, production and trade.
Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, in his presentation titled "The Matrix of Security in South Asia" talked about the strategic landscape in South Asia. While citing issues of perennial volatility, he talked about the cancellation of the 19th SAARC Summit which was supposed to be held in Islamabad this month.
He stated that tensions between India and Pakistan do not create favourable conditions for economic growth in the region. He also outlined the emerging trends in the region. He ended his speech by highlighting some recommendations for stabilisation in the region.
Dr Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow with the Asia Programme at the German Marshall Fund of USA in his speech titled "Sustainable Peace in South Asia: Role of Major Powers," analysed the potential for the new regional connectivity schemes, including CPEC, China's Belt and Road Initiative, and other international efforts, to enhance stability in South Asia.
He argued that navigating political sensitivities effectively in the early years of the connectivity schemes are critical to their fate.
He also stated that by building open regional economic connectivity platforms and a degree of international consensus behind the initiatives will maximise the prospects. However, some degree of economic competition in South Asia is necessary, if it does not bleed into the security realm because it may ensure complementary and mutually reinforcing outcomes given the scale of the region's infrastructure needs and the existing weaknesses of trade relations.
Dr Oleg Kulakov, Advisor to the Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS), in his presentation on "Peace and Economics of Regional Security in South Asia" talked about the issues of peaceful economic development in South Asia and how they have always been considered amid regional security.
He stated that different countries at the regional level consider similar problems in different ways - each in terms of their interests. In other words, there is no universal point of view how factors interact and result in creating a general image. Problems exacerbate because of the wide involvement and interference in regional affairs by non regional players, lobbing their interests. He also stated that security issues are closely connected with economic challengers. While threats of instability put off investors and reduce the possibility of projects with high levels of employment, they do create conditions for the shadow economy to prosper which in its turn often becomes a sponsor of instability, he added.
Dr Ye Hailin, chief editor of South Asia Studies, in his presentation on "Regional Connectivity and Peace" spoke about the significance and potential effect of CPEC on promoting South Asian regional connectivity.
He stated that CPEC is a crucial corridor for connecting South Asia and Middle Asia, as well as West Asia and East Asia, not only geographically and politically but also economically. The CPEC, as well as other initiatives, mean to further regional and global connectivity, must have strategic reliability and stability to overcome and surpass traditional geographic problems. He advised that authorities working on certain regional cooperation initiatives such as CPEC, should pay more attention to the actual effect, set reasonable goals, choose their dialogue partners wisely, prepare a comprehensive international public standing and work on improving the regional power balance.
Former Senator Javed Jabbar spoke on "Soft Power: Consolidating Connectivity for Regional Peace."
He stated that in South Asia or any other region - stability is assured only when hard power is assured. This may be through a declared consensus between hard power states or by tacit acceptance of all concerned of the reasons for the stability being assured by the singular or conjoined, balancing aspect of the hard power of more than one source.
He went on to explain that on a purely internal South Asian regional basis, hard power is asymmetrical. India continues to build conventional power and remain the world's largest importer of arms. Yet a deterrent balance that substantially corrects this asymmetry is assured by the factor of nuclear weapons being possessed by both Pakistan and India. On its own, hard power is tangible. But it is also raw and crude. When hard power is combined with soft power, the resultant composite power is more resonant and rounded off.
He stated that composite power is the ideal level of fused power, soft and hard. Therefore, Pakistan's goal should be to attain composite power and to practice policies that build for a peaceful, productive, prosperous South Asia which addresses unresolved disputes through concerted, multi-lateral diplomacy.
The presiding officer Ambassador Shamshad Ahmad Khan in his concluding remarks said that Pakistan's vision of security architecture for South Asia seeks to address the sources of insecurity at the bilateral, regional and international levels.
The looming strategic peril and imperatives of economic security pose daunting challenges which must be met by South Asia in sync with the great global transformation of our times.
A peaceful and stable South Asia will generate dividends for the people of the region and ensure economic and trade benefits to the global economy.
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